Shimon Peres also paraded his political naiveté by immediately envisioning peace talks with a new Iranian regime and expressing hopes for the disappearance of the Islamic Republic through the extension of demonstrations: “I really don’t know what will disappear first, their enriched uranium, or their poor government.… Hopefully, the poor government will disappear.” [10]

The installment of a government under the moderate reformist Mir-Hossein Mousavi would not have brought  festivity to Israel, as the 67-year-old former prime minister had already demonstrated that he is not lenient or compromising toward the occupying power. Annulling the electoral results wouldn’t lead to very significant governmental change.

Third, Israel recognizes perfectly well that expressing support and empathy with any Iranian politician or movement would ultimately lead to nothing but the termination of their political viability, on the grounds of having been associated with Tel Aviv.

As Shlomo Aronson of Hebrew University told Haaretz in an interview, “Israeli leaders may be reluctant to openly support the protesters because being identified with Israel could do them more harm than good.” Most definitely, the people in Tel Aviv are fully aware of the fact that being accused of having linkage with Israel in Iran is one of the most intense and extreme political charges one can make.

This begs the question of why the Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs expressed his support of the Iranian reformist leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi so explicitly: “Mousavi and his wife have brought a new spirit of openness, and so I repeat – there will be a revolution in Iran.” [11]

Aside from his prediction turning out false, wise observers may rest assured that casting such overt support for a reformist leader, who is really just another insider in a “hostile” political system, is not meant to be a sign of pleasantness or encouragement, but is rather designed to generate agitation.

Taking a look at what Israeli pundits believe in regard to the differences of the conservative leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the reformist leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi, it is apparent that for Israel, it would make no difference whether Ahmadinejad is the president of Iran or his moderate contender.

Some have even suggested that a moderate president in Iran will be even more threatening to the ambitions of Israel. Soli Shahrivar, the head of Ezri Center for Iran and Persian Gulf Studies at University of Haifa, Israel, writes in Yedioth Ahronoth that “the question is whether a Mousavi victory and Ahmadinejad defeat will indeed serve Israel’s strategic interests, and the answer is probably no.” [12]

In an interview with CNBC, U.S. President Barack Obama also conceded that that there are really few differences between the two main challengers: “The difference between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi in terms of their actual policies may not be as great as has been advertised.” [13]

There is a general consensus among American and Israeli policy-makers and think tanks that a change in the presidency wouldn’t make any fundamental transformation in the long-run policies and ideologies of the Iranian government. The goal, rather, is to create a rift between the layers of power in Iran.

____________________

[1] http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=70&release=101

[2] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/netanyahu-lays-down-the-law-on-palestinian-statehood-1705312.html

[3] http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2009/01/20091316557303315.html

[4] http://www.npaid.org/?module=Articles;action=Article.publicShow;ID=7224

[5] http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/united_states/article695892.ece

[6] http://news.scotsman.com/uk/Crossparty-fury-of-MPs-at.4868105.jp

[7] http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=3&art_id=nw20081228135838626C247461

[8] http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2009-07-02-amnesty-israel-gaza_N.htm

[9] http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSLN829372

[10] http://www.haaretz.co.il/hasen/spages/1094754.html

[11] http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1245184879970&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull

[12] http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3730321,00.html

[13] http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1093610.html