The real danger for Russia lies in Russia’s desire for Western acceptance.
News services abroad ask me if President Erdogan of Turkey will, as a result of the coup attempt, realign Turkey with Russia. At this time, there is not enough information for me to answer. Speculation in advance of information is not my forte.
Moreover, I do not know if it is true that Moscow warned the President of Turkey of the coup, and I do not know if Washington was behind the coup. Therefore, I do not know how to weigh the scales. As I see it, whether Turkey stays with Washington or realigns with Moscow depends first of all on whether or not Moscow warned Turkey and whether or not Washington was behind the coup. If this is what Erdogan believes, whether true or false, Erdogan is likely to align with Russia. However, other factors will also influence Erdogan’s decision. For example, Erdogan’s belief about how resolute Putin is to standing up to Washington.
Erdogan will not want to align with Russia if he thinks Russia is not up to Washington’s challenge. Erdogan sees Putin endlessly asking for Washington’s cooperation, and Erdogan understands that Washington sees this as a sign of Russian weakness. Washington slaps Putin in the face, and Putin replies by asking for cooperation against ISIS. I understand why Putin responds this way. He wants to avoid a war between US/NATO and Russia that neither side can win. Putin is a man of peace and accepts affronts in order to save life. This is admirable. But that might not be the way Erdogan sees it. Erdogan might see it like Washington sees it: weakness.
The second consideration is whether Washington or Moscow offers Erdogan the best deal. Washington most certainly does not want the breakup of NATO and will strive to keep Turkey in NATO at all costs. Washington, for example, might deliver Gulen to Erdogan, and Washington might put one billion dollars in a bank account for Erdogan. This is easy for Washington to do, as Washington can print all of the world’s reserve currency it wishes to print. It is impossible for Moscow to deliver Gulen, and because Yeltsin accepted US advice conveyed through the IMF, the Russian ruble is not a substitute for the US dollar.
The world is accustomed to seeing Washington prevail, because Washington relies on force. Except for Putin’s response to the Georgian attack on South Ossetia, the world is accustomed to seeing Putin rely on diplomacy. As Mao said, power comes out of the barrel of a gun, and so the world believes. Putin seemed to be decisive when he accepted the Crimean vote and reunited the Crimea with Russia, but Putin turned down the requests of the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk to rejoin Russia, and this made Russia look weak. It also prolonged the conflict and the death and destruction continues.
In my opinion this strategic failure by Putin is the result of advice from the Russian “Atlanticist Integrationists”—the people who think that Russia does not count unless it is part of the West. In every sense, these pro-Western members of the Russian government are de facto members of the Treason Party. Yet they serve as a constraint on Russian decisiveness. The absence of Russian decisiveness provokes more pressure from Washington. It is a losing game for the Russian government to invite pressure from the West.
Washington sees that Putin is unable to break away from the influence of the Atlanticist Integrationists, which includes the Russian economic establishment led by the independent central bank. Therefore, Washington continues to make Washington’s cooperation with Russia in Syria dependent on Putin’s agreement that “Assad must go.” Putin wants to get rid of ISIS, because ISIS can infect Muslim areas of the Russian Federation. But if he agrees to get rid of Assad, chaos will prevail in Syria just as chaos prevails in Iraq and Libya, and Russia will have accepted Washington’s overlordship. Russia will become another vassal country added to Washington’s collection.
The real danger for Russia lies in Russia’s desire for Western acceptance. As long as Russians have this desire, they are a doomed people.
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PCR should consider that Russia has experienced war at its most brutal; Americans have not. Putin knows the risks and consequences of war, so he ardently avoids it. He also knows that even though Russia would probably win a European war, even with US belated help, the result would be catastrophic.
The US administration is insane, so he plays a patient game, as would a smart person visiting a demented relative in hospital. He’s playing with a full deck, dealing to all the players, watching the outcome of each deal. And he’s winning.
And Tiger, Russia has far more to gain by aligning with China, which is happening, China/Russia trade is now conducted in Yuan, not Dollars!
The USA still seems to think that the Russian federation is the same as the USSR which has been long gone.
The traditional Turkey/Russia antagonism existed during Imperialist Russia days and ended in 1917 with the Russian Revolution, again long gone events, both Turkey and Russia are far more pragmatic countries today.
The USA seems to have lost it`s way, not just in Syria either, the old British Gunboat Diplomacy that is avidly accepted and practiced by the USA is a relic of 100 years ago.
Just look at how the USA alienated Iran, simply because, since 1979, Iran has pursued Iranian and not USA interests. A country of some 80 million population a cultured history, a diverse industrial base and insanely oil rich has been lost to USA business.
But not to Chinese, Russian and European business!
I normally find Paul Craig Roberts opinions are revealingly perceptive, but for this story, I think perhaps his conditional bias that the USA is and always will be the dominant superpower, has clouded his judgement somewhat.
–As Mao said, power comes out of the barrel of a gun, and so the world believes==
When logic and reasonable arguments fail then ‘the last resort is the barrel of a gun’;.