Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) has built a strong fourth-quarter track record over more than two decades, posting gains in 17 of the last 24 years dating back to 2002.
The measurement runs from the final closing price in September through to the last close in December, with all figures adjusted for stock splits.
The gains recorded across those winning years were not modest increments — the median fourth-quarter return across the full 24-year sample came in at approximately 12%.
The most recent fourth quarter, however, broke from that pattern in a significant way, with shares sliding from near $120 at the start of the period to under $94 by year end, a loss of roughly 22%.
One key dynamic that has historically shaped Netflix’s fourth-quarter performance is the company’s October earnings release, which typically lands a few weeks into the final stretch of the year.
Since 2004, Netflix has recorded 14 single-day moves of 10% or more following its October quarterly report, and in 13 of those instances the stock finished the fourth quarter moving in the same direction as that initial post-earnings reaction.
The pattern held consistently across the four years prior to last year, with shares jumping 13%, 16%, and 11% the day after the October reports in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively.
Those sharp single-day advances each translated into strong quarterly finishes, with the stock closing those fourth quarters up approximately 25%, 29%, and 26% in each of those three years.
Last year the same relationship played out in the opposite direction, as shares dropped 10% the day after the October 2025 earnings report, weighed down by an expense tied to a dispute with Brazilian tax authorities.
The historical record suggests that Netflix’s October earnings reaction functions as a surprisingly reliable directional signal for where the stock will ultimately close out the year.
For investors tracking seasonal patterns, the combination of a broadly positive fourth-quarter win rate and a strong post-earnings directional tendency gives the final quarter of the year outsized significance in Netflix’s annual performance story.
