NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) may be on the verge of signing a power purchase agreement that analysts believe could fundamentally shift sentiment across the small modular reactor industry.

The company’s stock has fallen more than 40% in 2026, weighed down by persistent uncertainty over whether SMR technology can ever achieve meaningful commercial scale.

That skepticism is not unfounded, as The Wall Street Journal has noted that only two SMR systems are currently active worldwide, leaving mass adoption an open question.

The industry has also been scarred by high-profile contract failures, with one analyst declaring in 2023 that the “collapse of NuScale’s project should spell the end for small modular nuclear reactors.”

NuScale and peers such as Oklo Inc. have never turned a profit, and negative cash flows are expected to continue in the near term, raising serious questions about long-term financial viability.

The most significant near-term catalyst centers on a partnership formed last September between NuScale’s financing partner, ENTRA1, and the Tennessee Valley Authority, a major U.S. utility, to develop a 6-gigawatt SMR system.

If completed, that project would represent the largest SMR installation in the world, yet NuScale’s shares have still fallen 75% since the announcement was made.

Markets remain deeply skeptical, in part because NuScale has signed major agreements before only to watch them collapse, including a 2019 deal with the Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems to build six 77-megawatt SMR modules delivering a combined 462 megawatts of capacity, a project that was eventually cancelled after partner withdrawals driven by delays and higher-than-expected costs.

A power purchase agreement with TVA would be a different category of commitment entirely, as PPAs are legally binding contracts that obligate a customer to purchase power at a preset price over years or even decades.

Such an agreement would give NuScale the revenue certainty needed to begin construction, removing the single largest source of investor doubt that has suppressed its valuation.

NuScale’s CFO has indicated that a PPA could arrive as early as the company’s next earnings announcement, a timeline that has drawn fresh attention from investors monitoring the stock.

A signed PPA would not only support NuScale’s share price but would likely send a confidence signal across the broader SMR sector, potentially marking a turning point for the industry’s long-term commercial prospects.