Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares have underperformed the broader market this year, falling 6% while the S&P 500 has climbed 8% over the same period.
The electric vehicle maker has faced a difficult environment shaped by macroeconomic headwinds, heavy capital expenditure spending that has yet to produce meaningful returns, and mixed financial results.
U.S. EV sales dropped 27% year over year in the first quarter, a broad market slowdown that weighed heavily on Tesla’s top-line performance during that period.
Tesla did manage to grow Q1 deliveries by 6% compared to the year-ago period, but that figure still came in below Wall Street’s expectations, leaving investors with little reason for optimism heading into the second quarter.
That picture could change significantly around July 2, when Tesla is expected to release its second-quarter delivery numbers, with some analysts predicting a meaningful beat against consensus forecasts.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney recently raised his second-quarter delivery projection for Tesla to 420,000 units, up from a prior estimate of 405,000, citing encouraging sales data from the period.
Delaney’s revised figure sits well above the consensus range of approximately 396,466 to 406,024, representing what would be a solid 9% increase from Tesla’s second-quarter 2025 delivery total.
A delivery beat of that magnitude would likely be interpreted by the market as evidence that demand for Tesla vehicles is recovering, potentially triggering a sharp rally in the stock price.
Beyond the delivery report, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said the company plans to reveal Optimus 3, the next generation of its humanoid robot, in late July or early August, which could provide a further catalyst for the stock.
Humanoid robotics remains one of the most closely watched growth vectors for Tesla, and any meaningful update on Optimus development tends to generate significant investor interest and media attention.
Together, a stronger-than-expected delivery report and a high-profile product reveal could create a concentrated window of positive momentum for Tesla shares through the summer months.
For investors who are comfortable with significant volatility and plan to hold shares over a longer time horizon, the current setup may represent a reasonable entry point for a small position.
