Cantor Fitzgerald has reiterated an “Overweight” rating on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) ahead of the company’s second-quarter production and delivery update, expected this week.
The brokerage projects Tesla will deliver 397,414 vehicles in Q2, falling short of the company-compiled consensus estimate of 408,609 units.
Despite the anticipated shortfall, Cantor sees energy storage deployments reaching 15.7 GWh, comfortably ahead of the consensus expectation of 13.9 GWh.
TSLA shares surged more than 8% on Monday to close at $411.84, marking the stock’s best single-day performance in over a year, driven by the rollout of FSD V14 Lite to early-access Hardware 3 owners.
Cantor highlighted Tesla’s Q1 free cash flow as “particularly encouraging,” with the company reporting $1.44 billion against consensus expectations for a $1.78 billion outflow.
Tesla has since raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to more than $25 billion, up from $20 billion, and now expects negative free cash flow for the remainder of the year.
Looking beyond the near-term headwinds, Cantor declared 2026 a “transformational year” for Tesla as the company advances into autonomy, artificial intelligence, robotics and chip development.
The firm identified Cybercab, Tesla Semi and Megapack 3 as “material catalysts,” stating all three remain on track for volume production this year.
Cantor also spotlighted Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot program, noting the first-generation production line is being installed in California with a 1 million-unit annual capacity target, while a second-generation line at Gigafactory Texas is being prepared for a longer-term 10 million-unit capacity goal.
Wall Street analysts remain divided on Q2 delivery expectations, with Barclays forecasting 418,000 deliveries while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating and a $360 price target, implying roughly 13% downside from current levels.
Barclays noted that Tesla’s auto volumes have become “increasingly an afterthought,” with the stock driven primarily by robotaxi, Optimus and AI expectations rather than core vehicle sales.
JPMorgan trimmed its Q2 delivery estimate to 420,000 from 430,500, citing “mixed” EV demand signals, while holding a “Neutral” rating and a $475 price target that implies approximately 15.3% upside.
RBC Capital Markets is forecasting 405,000 deliveries with an “Outperform” rating and a $475 price target, while UBS also sees around 405,000 units but carries a “Neutral” rating and a more conservative $364 target implying roughly 12% downside.
Baird projects the lowest delivery figure among major brokerages at 392,900, yet maintains an “Outperform” rating with a $522 price target, suggesting a potential 27% upside from current levels.
Retail sentiment on Stocktwits was rated “neutral” amid “high” message volume, with one user predicting a short-term pullback before a run into earnings, and another forecasting the stock would reach $500 on the back of rising production and demand.
Despite Monday’s sharp rally, Tesla remains the third-worst performer among its “Magnificent Seven” peers so far this year, with shares down approximately 8% on a year-to-date basis.
