On June 23, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) would replace Verizon Communications in the prestigious Dow Jones Industrial Average, continuing a wave of modernization across the 30-component index.
Since 2020, seven of the Dow’s components have changed, with additions including Honeywell International, Salesforce, Amgen, Amazon, Nvidia, Sherwin-Williams, and now Alphabet replacing RTX, ExxonMobil, Pfizer, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Intel, Dow, and Verizon.
Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), better known as SpaceX, has only been publicly traded for a couple of weeks, but analysts are already building a case for its eventual inclusion in the index.
The first and perhaps strongest reason is industry leadership, as SpaceX is the undisputed leader in commercial space launches, conducting 82% of all U.S. space launches in a market with significant long-term growth potential.
Beyond launch services, SpaceX’s Starlink satellite broadband network represents a formidable communications business that could one day rival and surpass the very company it replaced in the Dow, Verizon Communications.
The larger strategic ambition, however, lies in artificial intelligence, with SpaceX’s ownership of xAI and plans to launch millions of AI compute satellites through a new Texas facility called Gigasat, supported by an integrated chip manufacturing plant named Terafab.
CEO Elon Musk has demonstrated a track record of unlocking manufacturing efficiencies at Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), though AI compute satellites carry far heavier payloads than Starlink satellites and present new engineering and logistical challenges at scale.
The second reason supporting a potential Dow inclusion is sheer market size, as SpaceX’s market capitalization, if maintained or expanded, would make it one of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States.
Size alone is no guarantee of inclusion, however, as mega-cap companies like Meta Platforms and Tesla remain outside the Dow despite their enormous valuations, showing that the index’s committee applies more criteria than market cap alone.
The third and perhaps most compelling near-term path to Dow inclusion would be a merger between SpaceX and Tesla, whose combined market capitalization already exceeds that of Microsoft and Amazon.
Such a merger would carry industrial logic beyond financials, as Tesla’s self-driving and robotics technologies heavily rely on xAI, Tesla is already a partner with SpaceX and xAI on Terafab, and SpaceX could benefit directly from Tesla’s expertise in energy storage.
There is also a notable gap in the Dow’s current composition worth flagging, as there is no automotive company among its 30 components, which could make a combined SpaceX-Tesla entity an attractive candidate to fill multiple sector gaps simultaneously.
The most significant obstacle to SpaceX’s inclusion remains profitability, as the Dow is unlikely to add a company that is not consistently generating earnings, regardless of its strategic promise or public profile.
While Salesforce was added to the Dow in 2020 without paying a dividend, and Nvidia was added in 2024 with only a minimal dividend, both companies had been consistently growing earnings for years before their inclusion, a milestone SpaceX has not yet reached.
SpaceX reported a net loss in 2025 and is currently borrowing money to fund its ambitious growth plans, meaning investors may be better served keeping the stock on a watchlist until it demonstrates a reliable path to profitability.
