Gavin Baker, founder and Chief Investment Officer of Atreides Management, believes the market is focused on the wrong upcoming IPO.
While SpaceX’s reported June 12 listing dominates headlines, Baker argued on the Invest Like the Best YouTube channel that Anthropic presents a more compelling long-term trajectory.
Baker’s thesis is that Anthropic, the private AI lab behind Claude, is the most credible candidate to eventually surpass Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) as the world’s most valuable company.
Nvidia currently holds a market capitalization of $5.2 trillion, with its stock up 55% over the past year, making Baker’s claim a striking one.
His argument centers on where AI economics ultimately concentrate and how rapidly Anthropic is compounding its revenue base.
Baker offered a pointed comparison to illustrate Anthropic’s growth: “The three highest profile SaaS companies founded in the last 10 years are Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR), Snowflake (NYSE: SNOW), and DataBricks. Anthropic just added their combined business in one month.”
According to industry estimates Baker referenced, Anthropic started the year at just over $10 billion in annualized revenue and has since reached a $45 billion annualized revenue run rate.
Baker described this acceleration as the most aggressive enterprise software ramp ever recorded, with Claude capturing significant share of frontier model usage across coding, agentic workflows, and enterprise deployments.
Anthropic recently raised funding at a $900 billion valuation, but Baker suggested market demand could have supported a raise closer to $1.8 trillion.
Baker’s view is that Anthropic’s underlying business is growing far faster than SpaceX’s, making the comparison less about present size and more about growth slope.
The bull case against Nvidia rests on the idea that AI value accrues most to whoever holds the leading frontier model, rather than to the compute layer that trains it.
Nvidia’s most recent earnings showed Q1 FY2027 revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% year over year, with data center revenue reaching $75.25 billion per its SEC filing.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang described “the largest infrastructure expansion in human history” as accelerating at extraordinary speed, underscoring the company’s current dominance.
Baker’s counterpoint is that compute could commoditize over a multi-year horizon as custom silicon from hyperscalers and rivals matures, potentially shifting value toward model developers.
If that shift occurs, the dollar split between the leading model and the chips used to train it could move significantly in Anthropic’s favor over time.
Anthropic remains private with no confirmed IPO date, and surpassing Nvidia would require both sustained growth at Anthropic and a relative decline in Nvidia’s market capitalization.
Frontier model leadership has changed hands multiple times in recent years, meaning any assumption that Claude maintains its competitive position is itself a forecast that carries real risk.
Investors tracking this thesis are advised to monitor any Anthropic S-1 filing, upcoming frontier model benchmark releases, and enterprise AI revenue disclosures from Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) Web Services and Google Cloud, Anthropic’s two largest distribution partners.
The most consequential IPO story of the next several years may not be the one currently dominating market conversation, and Nvidia shareholders should understand the long-term thesis their stock is being measured against.
