Shares in Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) came under pressure following the release of first quarter 2026 results that beat on profit but missed on revenue, with JPMorgan maintaining a Sell rating and a price target of $145 that would represent a roughly 60 percent decline from current trading levels.
Tesla reported Q1 revenue of $22.39 billion, up 16 percent year on year but falling short of the $22.64 billion Wall Street had forecast, while adjusted earnings per share of $0.41 beat the $0.36 consensus by four cents and marked a 52 percent increase from the same period a year earlier.
Vehicle deliveries totalled 358,023 units, again below analyst estimates in the range of 366,000 to 370,000, continuing a pattern of delivery shortfalls that has weighed on sentiment through the early months of 2026.
Automotive gross margins reached 19.2 percent, the strongest quarterly reading Tesla achieved across all of fiscal 2025, and free cash flow grew 117 percent to $1.44 billion, providing some reassurance on the underlying cash generation of the business.
Operating income climbed 136 percent to $941 million, services revenue jumped 42 percent to $3.75 billion, and Full Self Driving subscriptions rose 51 percent year on year to reach 1.28 million.
Capital expenditure for the quarter came in at $2.49 billion, around 40 percent below what analysts had modelled, though the company maintained its full year guidance of over $25 billion to fund Cybercab production, the Megapack 3 battery line, AI chip development and an Optimus humanoid robot programme targeting 10 million units annually.
JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman reiterated his Sell stance, arguing that the more than 50 percent rise in Tesla’s share price during a period when earnings and delivery expectations have collapsed across every time horizon through the end of the decade implies a level of future performance improvement that is not yet visible in any current metric.
Brinkman added that Tesla’s push into higher volume, lower price point segments carries significant demand, execution and competitive risk.
His $145 target sits well below the Street average of around $411 to $416, and Tesla carries a forward price to earnings multiple of 182 times and a trailing multiple of approximately 340 times, with the bull case resting almost entirely on Robotaxi and Optimus delivering meaningful revenue at scale within the next two to three years.
Chief executive Elon Musk said on the earnings call that Optimus would likely be the biggest product in Tesla’s history, and potentially the biggest product of any company ever, while confirming plans to expand unsupervised Full Self Driving Robotaxi operations to a dozen US states by the end of the year.
Tesla shares remain down approximately 15 percent year to date, making the stock the worst performer within the Magnificent Seven cohort for 2026.
