Shares in Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS), the Amsterdam based AI infrastructure company, gained around 4.2 percent in a single session as the market assessed its Q1 2026 earnings release and continued momentum across the company’s growing contract backlog.
The stock had entered the earnings day having already surged roughly 87 percent year to date, establishing itself as one of the top performing names on the Nasdaq amid sustained investor appetite for AI infrastructure plays.
Analysts had forecast a loss of $0.81 per share for the quarter on revenue of approximately $375 million, representing a substantial sequential jump from the $227.7 million reported in Q4 2025, a quarter in which the company missed earnings expectations.
Nebius operates full stack AI infrastructure including large scale GPU clusters and cloud platforms, and counts Nvidia as a strategic backer following a $2 billion equity investment from the chipmaker.
The company’s contracted revenue backlog has grown to approximately $46 billion, anchored by a five year commitment worth up to $27 billion from Meta Platforms for dedicated AI cloud capacity and a separate $19.4 billion commitment from Microsoft for GPU compute from its New Jersey data centre.
Nebius raised $4 billion through a convertible debt offering to fund its aggressive $16 to $20 billion capital expenditure plan for 2026, with management describing the company as now well funded to meet its spending targets.
Full year 2026 revenue guidance stands at $3 to $3.4 billion, up from $530 million in 2025, implying a roughly sixfold expansion in revenue if the company executes on its buildout schedule.
The stock carries a consensus Strong Buy rating from 12 analysts covering the name, with an average 12 month price target of $163, implying meaningful upside from recent trading levels.
Sceptics point to extreme valuation multiples, with the stock trading at around 47 times trailing sales, significant insider selling of approximately $14.7 million worth of shares over the past 90 days, and a history of missing revenue estimates in three of the past four quarters.
Wolfe Research initiated coverage with a Peer Perform rating, acknowledging the demand story as proven but flagging execution and financing risk given the scale of capital deployment still required to complete the 2026 buildout.
