A constellation of senior European officials has descended on Abu Dhabi for Ukraine peace talks this week, yet analysts say their influence over any eventual deal may be close to zero.
Representatives from Germany, France, Britain, Italy, the European Union, and NATO are attending the trilateral discussions between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States, which run Tuesday and Wednesday.
Among those present are Günter Sautter, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s foreign and security policy adviser, Jonathan Powell, the UK’s national security advisor, and Björn Seibert, Chief of Staff to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Geoffrey van Leeuwen, Chief of Staff to NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, and Fabrizio Saggio, diplomatic adviser to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, are also part of the European contingent.
Hanna Shelest, security studies director at the foreign policy network Ukrainian Prism, said the Europeans would play “an observing role, at best,” arguing that Moscow has deliberately worked to frame the negotiations as a bilateral superpower conversation between Russia and Washington.
“I doubt the Russian delegation will let the Europeans have a say,” Shelest told DW, adding that Russia has consistently sought to exclude European voices to maximize pressure on the United States.
Leading the Russian side is Vladimir Medinsky, a Kremlin aide who previously headed Moscow’s negotiating team in earlier rounds, and who is accompanied by high-ranking military and intelligence officials.
Shelest offered a pointed assessment of what Medinsky’s presence typically signals, saying: “Experience from the past years has taught us that as soon as Medinsky heads negotiations, the point becomes demonstrating to the US that Russia is willing to talk, but in reality, they won’t reach an agreement. Instead, there will be a long sermon about history and all sorts of other things.”
Ukraine’s delegation is led by Rustem Umerov, head of the country’s Foreign Intelligence Service, and includes lawmaker Davyd Arakhamia alongside diplomatic and military officials.
On the American side, special envoy Steve Witkoff is joined by Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and fellow special envoy, whose involvement signals the White House’s continued personal stake in brokering an agreement.
Kyiv’s stated priorities entering the talks include security guarantees, an energy ceasefire, reopening the Black Sea to shipping, expanded prisoner exchanges, and laying the groundwork for a summit between the leaders of Ukraine, the United States, and Russia.
Arakhamia tempered expectations ahead of the sessions, saying “I don’t think there will be a breakthrough, after there was such a long break in the negotiation process,” while noting that resuming talks at all could itself be considered progress.
One concrete area where negotiators may find traction is a potential expansion of the limited humanitarian truce brokered near Oleshky, a town in Russian-occupied Kherson in southern Ukraine, where US First Lady Melania Trump was credited with arranging a temporary ceasefire in late October that allowed civilian evacuations and aid deliveries.
Ivan Us, an economic diplomacy expert at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, agreed that the Oleshky model could serve as a template for other localized humanitarian pauses, though he cautioned that Russia had continued military strikes during that truce and used the lull to reinforce its positions around the town.
President Donald Trump last week described a potential outcome as a “big beautiful agreement” involving all of Europe, a phrase that emerged after his conversation with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, though analysts noted the sweeping rhetoric has yet to be matched by concrete concessions from Moscow.
Kushner subsequently elaborated on social media that any emerging architecture would center on “permanent security consultations, reliable crisis communications, greater military transparency, reciprocal measures to reduce escalation risks, and an enduring framework for long-term European security and stability.”
Shelest dismissed the framing, observing that those points “don’t contain anything the Russians haven’t been talking about since 2009,” suggesting the proposal reflects Moscow’s longstanding demands rather than a genuine diplomatic breakthrough.
The Abu Dhabi talks follow an earlier sequence of US-mediated negotiations in January and February that produced no tangible results, leaving open the question of whether this round will fare any differently.
