A historically bearish options pattern is flashing on Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) charts, raising fresh concerns about where the stock heads next.

Over the past three years, SMCI’s 10-day buy-to-open call/put ratio has crossed above 1.0 and entered the 90th percentile on nine separate occasions, a signal that has carried a notably grim track record.

According to Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the stock climbed one month after those signals only 33% of the time, averaging a loss of 12.5% across all instances.

Applied to the current share price, that average decline would drag SMCI back toward $30, uncomfortably close to the two-month lows the company only recently left behind.

The options ratio now sits at 4.99 across the International Securities Exchange, Cboe Options Exchange, and NASDAQ OMX PHLX, exceeding 90% of all comparable readings recorded over the past year.

That elevated positioning in calls relative to puts, despite the bearish historical outcome, suggests traders are leaning optimistically into a stock that has already shed considerable ground.

SMCI has fallen 32% from its annual peak of $51.40, with Tuesday’s session adding another layer of pressure as shares slipped 2.8% to $34.79.

The decline marked the fourth losing session in six, leaving the chip producer struggling to establish any sustained recovery momentum.

Compounding the technical pressure, the company is set to report quarterly earnings after the closing bell on November 3, an event that historically triggers outsized price swings in either direction.

SMCI has averaged a post-earnings move of 14.2% regardless of direction, a magnitude that could either accelerate the selloff or sharply reverse it within days.

Bulls can point to three consecutive double-digit post-earnings gains as reason for optimism, though a longer view of the data tells a more cautious story.

The stock has finished lower following eight of its last 12 earnings reports, meaning the recent run of strong reactions is the exception rather than the rule.

With a bearish options signal active, a 32% drawdown already on the books, and a high-volatility earnings event days away, the risk profile for SMCI heading into November looks anything but straightforward.