D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) has fallen 62% over the past year, hitting a fresh 52-week low this week as investors weigh a shrinking revenue base against explosive bookings growth.
The decline is steeper than rival IonQ’s 47% drop over the same period, though it trails Rigetti Computing’s 71% slide, placing D-Wave firmly in the middle of a sector-wide selloff.
D-Wave’s troubles began early in 2026 when the company agreed to acquire Quantum Circuits for $550 million, comprising $250 million in cash and $300 million in D-Wave stock.
First-quarter revenue then fell 81% year-over-year, a decline management attributed to a large system sale recorded in the prior-year period that did not repeat.
Second-quarter revenue of $3.08 million missed analyst expectations of $4.03 million, and the company reported a wider loss than the Street had forecast.
A CHIPS Act deal finalized in September added up to $100 million in federal funding in exchange for a minority government stake, which means further shareholder dilution, mirroring a parallel agreement reached by Rigetti.
Despite a partnership with AT&T, federal funding commitments, and a gate-model simulator now in customers’ hands, the company generated only about $5.9 million in total revenue across the first half of 2026.
The entire bull case now rests on bookings, which jumped 1,120% in the first half to $35.5 million, pushing the total backlog to $40.7 million.
Analyst consensus calls for $42.5 million in full-year 2026 revenue, a figure that would require approximately $37 million in the second half alone, more than six times what the company generated in the first half.
Management has indicated that most of 2026’s revenue will land in the fourth quarter, and that only about 57% of the current backlog, roughly $23 million, is expected to convert within 12 months.
A securities class action filed October 15 in federal court in Northern California directly challenges the bookings narrative, alleging those record figures came mostly from two older contracts with no comparable new deals behind them.
The lawsuit also alleges that system deliveries have been slipping into the fourth quarter of 2026 and into 2027, though these remain unproven allegations at this stage.
D-Wave did announce a delivery on the same day the lawsuit was filed, with an Advantage2 system arriving in Como, Italy, for installation.
The company’s third-quarter report, expected in early November, will be critical, with investors focused on whether systems have shipped, how much backlog has converted to revenue, and whether new bookings have emerged beyond those two contracts.
On valuation, the stock trades at 67x forward sales, well below its three-year average of 151x and a fraction of the 839x multiple it commanded in October 2025, but still elevated relative to actual revenue delivery.
Wall Street’s mean price target stands at $35, up from $26 a year ago, even as the stock dropped from $31 to under $12 over that same period.
Liquidity is not an immediate concern, as D-Wave held $546 million in cash and marketable securities at the end of June, with the CHIPS deal providing up to $100 million more, including roughly $54 million up front.
Until the third-quarter report provides concrete evidence of systems delivered and bookings converting to revenue, the valuation leaves little margin for the lawsuit’s allegations to prove accurate.
