Rocket Lab Corporation (NASDAQ: RKLB) closed at $68.40 on October 8, a decline of 4.89% on the day and 8.87% below its October 6 closing price of $75.06.
The selloff was not isolated to Rocket Lab, with SpaceX-linked ETF SPCX falling 6.60%, AST SpaceMobile dropping 9.81%, and Planet Labs declining 7.43% across the same two trading sessions.
No Rocket Lab-specific negative catalyst was reported during either session, with analysts pointing instead to a spike in crude oil prices and elevated Treasury yields as broader headwinds for growth stocks.
The more consequential development for Rocket Lab’s long-term thesis came from SpaceX, which received Federal Communications Commission clearance on October 6 to deploy 15,000 Starlink Mobile satellites without requiring a wireless-carrier spectrum lease.
Late on October 8, SpaceX then agreed to acquire Grain Management’s nationwide 800 MHz spectrum, a move designed to pair satellite connectivity with ground infrastructure and close persistent gaps in indoor coverage.
William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma noted that the Grain spectrum acquisition could help Starlink Mobile address its indoor coverage limitations, though the deal still requires FCC approval and its financial terms were not disclosed.
The SpaceX moves carry direct implications for Rocket Lab’s planned $8 billion acquisition of Iridium Communications, a deal that Rocket Lab founder and CEO Sir Peter Beck has positioned as a gateway into the direct-to-device satellite market.
Beck, on Rocket Lab’s August 10 earnings call, described Iridium as operating 66 satellites, serving more than 2.5 million subscribers, and generating more than $870 million in revenue over the prior year, with its L-band spectrum capable of penetrating rain, weather, and buildings.
Beck acknowledged on that call that the direct-to-mobile landscape “is going to change a lot” by the mid-2030s, but expressed measured confidence in Iridium’s L-band advantages, noting that it is “the wrong kind of spectrum for broadband” but well suited to its intended uses.
Iridium’s own direct-to-device service, NTN Direct, is a narrowband IoT offering over its global L-band network, and is slated to become commercially available to Deutsche Telekom IoT customers in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Iridium shareholders approved the acquisition on September 24, with the deal expected to close in mid-2027 pending regulatory clearances, and Rocket Lab raised $1.94 billion through an at-the-market stock sale to help fund the transaction.
On the launch vehicle side, CFO Adam Spice stated that Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket came to market at an average selling price of $50 million to $55 million with no significant early discounting, and that the company sees more upside than downside from that pricing level.
Beck added that Rocket Lab has had “absolutely 0 issues in selling full price Neutrons pre-test flights,” underscoring strong pre-launch commercial demand for the vehicle.
Spice indicated that adjusted EBITDA would turn positive in the quarter following Neutron’s first successful launch, with positive free cash flow expected on a stand-alone basis 18 to 24 months after that milestone.
Analyst consensus drawn from eight contributors projects EBITDA turning positive at approximately $9 million in the first quarter of 2027, which under Spice’s framework implies a first Neutron flight around the end of 2026.
Rocket Lab used $110.12 million of free cash flow in the second quarter of 2026, and the company guided third-quarter revenue to between $250 million and $265 million, against a consensus estimate of approximately $258 million.
Barclays initiated coverage of Rocket Lab at Overweight with an $85 price target on October 8, while TD Cowen trimmed its target to $90 from $120 on October 9, maintaining a Buy rating and describing the sector’s de-rating as “disorderly.”
The mean Street price target stood at approximately $109 as of October 8, leaving substantial implied upside from current levels even after the two-day decline.
A revenue miss against the $258 million consensus, combined with a Neutron pad delivery slipping past December 31, would place the projected first-quarter 2027 EBITDA inflection at risk and extend the company’s cash burn timeline.
Conversely, a strong third-quarter result with the rocket on schedule keeps the path to profitability intact and would likely reignite investor confidence in Rocket Lab’s dual-pronged growth strategy across launch services and satellite communications.
