SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares surged 9.65% on Wednesday, closing at $146.15, after founder Elon Musk made a sweeping prediction about Starlink’s long-term dominance of global internet infrastructure.
The rally follows a difficult stretch for SPCX stock, which had barely broken even over the prior month, weighed down by post-IPO dilution and a massive 911.5 million share unlock on August 6.
The catalyst was a company town hall update posted to the official SpaceX account on X, in which Musk told employees Starlink had “brought from nothing an entire global Internet system… the first high-bandwidth global Internet system to ever exist.”
Musk went further, stating, “I actually think that down the road it will probably do the majority of the Internet. In fact, I think it might end up doing over 90% of all Internet traffic on Starlink.”
He also highlighted Starlink’s current orbital footprint, noting the constellation already has “almost 11,000 satellites in orbit… almost twice as many satellites as everyone else combined,” with plans to scale to 100,000 satellites through Starlink V3 and beyond.
The financial backdrop gives Musk’s prediction some grounding, with SpaceX’s Q2 2026 Connectivity revenue reaching $4.29 billion, a 66% year-over-year increase, as Starlink subscribers doubled to 12 million.
Enterprise and Government revenue climbed 108% in the same period, while SpaceX’s total revenue jumped 92% to $7.81 billion, comfortably exceeding analyst estimates.
Despite the engineering achievement, Musk’s 90% forecast raises serious questions about market concentration in a communications industry that has historically benefited from fierce competition among multiple operators.
Wireless pricing has fallen for decades precisely because rivals competed aggressively for the same infrastructure, and a single operator controlling the vast majority of global internet traffic would hand that company enormous pricing power.
The most well-funded direct rival to Starlink remains Amazon’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) Project Kuiper, while AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS), Globalstar (NASDAQ: GSAT), and Viasat (NASDAQ: VSAT) are all developing competing broadband or direct-to-device constellations.
Terrestrial carriers like AT&T (NYSE: T) occupy a more complex position, operating as both partners and competitors to satellite broadband providers as orbital connectivity increasingly targets last-mile traffic.
For investors seeking broader sector exposure, the Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ: UFO) offers thematic access, though its heavy weightings in names like GSAT, ASTS, and VSAT mean concentration risk cuts in both directions.
SPCX stock is likely to remain volatile as investors weigh Musk’s ambitious forecast against the pending $60 billion Cursor close and the next scheduled Starship V3 flight as key near-term catalysts.
If the 90% prediction gains even directional credibility over time, competitor valuations could face meaningful compression well before Starlink approaches anything close to that level of market dominance.
