Michael Burry, the contrarian investor who famously bet against the housing market ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, has opened short positions in two major AI infrastructure stocks.
In an August 6 post on his Substack, Cassandra Unchained, Burry disclosed new short positions in Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) and Oracle (NYSE: ORCL), describing the trades as “a bit like shooting fish in a barrel.”
Burry shorted Nebius at $211.77 per share and Oracle at $144.63 per share, though he did not disclose the size of either position.
The Nebius short is the more aggressive of the two, with Burry opting for a direct equity position rather than options because put implied volatility exceeded 100%, making derivatives “exorbitantly priced.”
Burry’s core argument is that AI infrastructure companies are overstating earnings by depreciating expensive GPUs too slowly, estimating Oracle’s profits could be overstated by as much as 26 to 27% by 2028.
He described companies carrying long-term lease obligations that dwarf their current revenue metrics as “very fat, very large, easy to shoot” fish, framing the broader AI buildout as a setup for a significant financial reckoning.
The timing is pointed for Nebius specifically, which reported Q1 2026 revenue of $399 million, up 684% year-over-year, with positive adjusted EBITDA of $129.5 million.
Management had reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion, while also raising capex guidance from $16 to $20 billion up to $20 to $25 billion, and long-term debt more than doubled to $8.4 billion.
Those expanding liabilities are precisely where Burry appears to see his opening, as soaring capital commitments increasingly outpace near-term revenue generation across the AI infrastructure sector.
Burry had closed a previous Oracle put position on August 5, booking what he described as a “substantial” profit, before re-entering the trade as market conditions shifted.
Analyst consensus remains broadly bullish on both Oracle and Nebius, creating a sharp divergence between Burry’s bearish thesis and the prevailing Wall Street view on AI infrastructure spending.
The broader earnings season has shown that markets are willing to absorb heavy AI capital expenditure from companies like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), which have demonstrated clear monetization paths through cloud and enterprise software.
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) has faced a more skeptical reception, however, as investors continue debating whether its AI spending commitments will generate returns comparable to its hyperscaler peers.
Burry is simultaneously maintaining his short position in Palantir despite a 30% stock surge following strong earnings, while holding long positions in Flutter Entertainment, Fiserv, Zoetis, and Mercado Libre.
The Q2 earnings report from Nebius, scheduled for August 12, represents a near-term test of Burry’s thesis, with consensus projecting approximately $578 million in revenue and a loss of $0.52 per share, according to Zacks Equity Research.
Whether the results vindicate his “fish in a barrel” confidence or expose the limits of contrarian positioning against one of the market’s most momentum-driven sectors remains to be seen.
