Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that Russian authorities are planning to “expand mobilization” this autumn, citing intelligence services with knowledge of the Kremlin’s intentions.
Zelenskyy said Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing to recruit additional soldiers for the war against Ukraine, though he is disguising his true intentions publicly.
“He is concealing his intention behind different words and signals, but he is making preparations,” Zelenskyy said, urging partners to press Russia toward peace rather than further escalation.
“It is important that we, together with our partners, exert sufficient pressure on Russia so that the idea of ending this aggression — the idea of peace, rather than further Russian mobilization — prevails,” he added.
Putin’s original “partial mobilization” decree, issued in autumn 2022, technically remains in force, with Russia’s presidential administration confirming in 2023 that it “regulates additional measures necessary to ensure that the armed forces fulfill their objectives.”
Independent Russian exile outlet Verstka and Latvia-based portal Vaschnyje Istorii published a joint investigative report in late June stating that Russia’s leadership was secretly “discussing mobilization” due to worsening recruitment difficulties.
Data cited from Moscow’s mayoral office showed the city sent just 1,708 people to the front in April and 1,378 in May, roughly 1,000 fewer than during the same months the previous year.
Vaschnyje Istorii further reported that the recruitment rate for contract soldiers more than halved in the last quarter of 2025 compared with the same period the year before, with the decline deepening into early 2026.
Military personnel interviewed by Verstka described contract soldiers arriving at the front as “unfit for combat,” with one conscript telling the outlet that “units are staffed at 30 to 40%, at best.”
The US-based Institute for the Study of War reported in late July that the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for a new mobilization drive, though analysts noted it “remains unclear whether or how Putin will decide to implement mobilization.”
ISW analysts wrote that any such decision would be “a personal decision for Putin that is contingent on his personal perception of the battlefield situation and his perception of the stability and integrity of the Kremlin.”
Adding to the speculation, Verstka reported a sharp increase in demand for rental apartments in Yerevan, Armenia, mirroring a pattern seen in 2022 when Russia launched its full-scale invasion, with rents rising roughly 30% in recent months.
One Yerevan landlord told the outlet that 80% of recent inquiries were now coming from Russians who had recently relocated or were planning to move, a sharp shift from prior years when most clients were long-term Russian residents.
Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to address Zelenskyy’s mobilization remarks at a late July press conference, saying simply that “it is not Zelenskyy’s job to talk about our plans.”
Andrei Klishas, a member of the Russian Federation Council, told media outlet RTVI in early summer 2026 that a new mobilization was unnecessary and not under discussion, while Deputy Security Council Chairman Dmitry Medvedev dismissed the reports as “pre-election propaganda.”
Medvedev claimed that some 200,000 people had enlisted in the Russian army during the first half of 2026, though military expert Yan Matveyev urged caution about accepting such figures at face value.
“Of course, you can’t blindly trust information provided by the Russian authorities,” Matveyev told DW, adding that “information is adjusted to align with their objectives.”
Matveyev estimated the real figure was closer to 170,000 or 180,000 new soldiers over six months, and said even that pace of recruitment falls short of what Russia would need to achieve a military victory over Ukraine.
“Even if they doubled the size of their army, Russia would not be able to defeat Ukraine, but as can be seen from the statements made by Putin and his officials, that is precisely their goal,” Matveyev said.
He warned that without a fresh mobilization, Russia’s frontline strength will erode gradually before accelerating, concluding that “losses are growing and will continue to rise given current trends.”
