Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS) shares dropped 17% on July 1 after reports suggested Meta Platforms might expand into cloud computing and monetize excess data center capacity.
Investors feared that a Meta cloud business would make the social media giant a direct competitor to AI infrastructure providers rather than a paying customer.
The logic driving the selloff seemed simple enough: if Meta builds its own cloud, companies selling GPU clusters and AI infrastructure could lose a major source of future revenue.
However, research firm SemiAnalysis argues the market drew the wrong conclusion, suggesting Meta’s AI ambitions are still expanding and will require outside infrastructure partners to meet demand.
SemiAnalysis believes Meta’s data center investments are set to accelerate over the next several years, positioning companies like Nebius as key beneficiaries rather than casualties of that growth.
Nebius is an AI infrastructure company headquartered in Schiphol, the Netherlands, focused on delivering full-stack cloud services including large-scale GPU clusters, AI cloud platforms, and developer tools for training and deploying AI models.
The stock had been one of the market’s strongest performers heading into the selloff, with NBIS shares gaining 346% over the past 52 weeks and climbing 151% year-to-date before the decline began.
Nebius reached an all-time high of $299.86 on June 22, the same day it was added to the Nasdaq-100 Index, a milestone that had already drawn considerable institutional attention to the company.
The company also announced a five-year, $27 billion agreement with Meta, comprising a $12 billion dedicated compute commitment alongside $15 billion in optional capacity, providing significant financing flexibility.
Management noted the deal structure allows capacity to be allocated between Meta and higher-margin AI cloud customers, giving Nebius meaningful room to optimize its revenue mix.
Nebius also expanded its partnership with Nvidia, earning Nvidia Exemplar Cloud status for GB300 training workloads and securing improved access to future GPU platforms including Vera Rubin.
Demand signals across the business remain strong, with pipeline generation rising 3.5x sequentially and multiple customers competing for every GPU unit the company deploys.
Customer adoption is also broadening across sectors including fintech, healthcare, robotics, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and life sciences, all using Nebius platforms to run large-scale AI applications.
With a major Meta supply agreement already signed and AI demand showing no signs of cooling, the recent pullback may reflect misplaced fears rather than any deterioration in Nebius’s underlying business.
