September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) closed up 65 points, or 1.14%, on Tuesday, while September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) gained 43 points, or 1.02%.
Cocoa prices have now extended a sharp three-week rally, reaching their highest levels in six months as supply concerns intensify across West Africa.
Heavy rains in the Ivory Coast and Ghana have flooded roads, cutting off farmers’ access to both farms and ports and raising serious concerns about global cocoa supplies.
Excessive moisture is also increasing the risk of brown rot disease and black pod disease on cocoa trees, threatening to reduce yields and damage the upcoming harvest.
Adding to medium-term price support, Japan’s Meteorological Agency confirmed on June 10 that an El Niño weather pattern had formed across the equatorial Pacific.
El Niño conditions typically bring warmer, drier weather to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering crop yields across the region.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” this year, which would rank among the strongest ever recorded.
Early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main harvest beginning in September.
Poor pod development has led to an average crop estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down 18% from approximately 2.2 MMT recorded in 2025/26.
StoneX cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 149,000 MT from a January forecast of 267,000 MT, citing risks to the West African crop from the expected El Niño event.
StoneX also trimmed its 2025/26 global cocoa surplus forecast to 247,000 MT, down from an earlier January estimate of 287,000 MT.
Nigeria’s Cocoa Association projects that Nigerian cocoa production in 2025/26 will fall 11% year-on-year to 305,000 MT, from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024/25 crop year.
Ghana cut the official price it pays cocoa farmers by nearly 30% in February for the 2025/26 growing season, while the Ivory Coast cut cocoa farmers’ pay by 57% effective from the mid-crop harvest that began in March.
The Ivory Coast and Ghana together produce more than half of the world’s cocoa, making their pricing and production decisions significant factors for global markets.
On the supply side, cumulative data from the Ivory Coast shows farmers shipped 2.04 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year through June 28, 2026, up 20% from the same period a year ago.
Global demand signals remain mixed, with the European Cocoa Association reporting that Q1 European cocoa grindings fell 7.8% year-on-year to 325,895 MT, the lowest Q1 figure in 17 years.
The National Confectioners Association reported that North American Q1 cocoa grindings fell 3.8% year-on-year to 106,087 MT, adding further bearish demand pressure to the market.
Offsetting some of this weakness, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q1 Asian cocoa grindings rose 5.2% year-on-year to 223,503 MT, well ahead of expectations for a 6.7% decline.
ICE cocoa inventories rose to a nearly two-year high of 3,082,154 bags on Tuesday, providing a partial counterweight to the weather-driven price rally.
