Fundstrat strategist and BitMine (NASDAQ: BMNR) chairman Tom Lee says Bitcoin’s extraordinary long-term performance is dangerously concentrated in a handful of trading sessions each year.
Speaking on All Things Markets, Lee argued that while Bitcoin has delivered the best compounded annual return of any asset class over the past 10 to 15 years, stripping out the 10 best days annually would leave investors “down 27% per year.”
“Crypto makes most of its gains in 10 days,” Lee said, framing the concentration of returns as the single strongest argument against trying to time the cryptocurrency market.
Lee drew a direct parallel to equity markets, citing Fundstrat research showing that missing the best days in the S&P 500 turns long-term returns negative, which he says explains why most retail investors consistently underperform the broader market.
He noted that the 10 best days over the past three years alone have accounted for more than 24 percentage points of S&P 500 returns, underscoring how punishing it can be to sit on the sidelines during brief but powerful rallies.
For long-term crypto buyers following Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, Lee pointed to an “early window” between August and October, when Bitcoin could potentially trade in the $50,000 to $60,000 range before any sustained move higher.
Bitcoin’s performance this year has diverged sharply from U.S. equities, with the cryptocurrency falling 31.63% since January while the S&P 500 has risen 9.11%, pushing the gap between the two assets to more than 40 percentage points.
The two assets moved broadly in tandem during the first quarter before beginning to separate in April, with Bitcoin suffering a near 35% sell-off in June before staging a partial recovery in early July.
On BitMine’s own positioning, Lee disclosed the company holds approximately $600 million in cash, has staked 80% of its ETH holdings, and generates “over 250 million a year in staking rewards,” alongside hundreds of millions in annual free cash flow.
Lee also revealed that BitMine has made selective investments, including a disclosed stake tied to YouTube creator MrBeast, and is collaborating with spinoffs from the Ethereum Foundation, SharpLink (SBET), and Consensys founder Joe Lubin to fund public goods and drive enterprise adoption of Ethereum.
“There’s going to be several more entities announcing funding soon,” Lee said, signaling that additional partnerships are in the pipeline as the company positions for a recovery in digital asset prices.
Lee acknowledged the period has been difficult for shareholders, saying “we are in a period where prices are really disappointing, and it’s very frustrating,” while maintaining that BitMine is built to weather the current crypto winter.
Ethereum was trading at $1,762 at the time of reporting, flat over the prior 24 hours, with the second-largest cryptocurrency down more than 40% so far this year despite some analysts pointing to early signs of a trend reversal against Bitcoin.
