Soybean futures are trading with 5 to 9 and a quarter cent weakness across most contracts on Thursday, pressured by a fresh USDA supply upgrade for Argentina.
The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price is down 9 and a quarter cents, settling at $10.59 and a quarter, reflecting broad market pressure on old and new crop positions.
Soymeal futures are bucking the trend, trading $1.00 to $1.40 higher on the day, while Soy Oil futures are 30 to 33 points lower, adding to a mixed picture across the soy complex.
The USDA released its weekly Export Sales report Thursday morning, showing 2025/26 bean sales of 211,292 MT, landing in the middle of the expected range of 150,000 to 400,000 MT for the week of June 4.
While that weekly figure was down 23.68% from the prior week, it remained well above the comparable week from the previous year, offering some underlying support to the longer-term demand outlook.
New crop sales came in at 141,500 MT, on the lower end of the 100,000 to 350,000 MT estimate range, falling back from the prior week by 41.77%, with total new crop sales now accumulated to 1.032 MMT, down 7.69% from the same point last year.
The WASDE report, also updated Thursday morning, held old crop U.S. stocks steady at 340 million bushels, though an internal shift moved 20 million bushels from the exports category into crush.
New crop U.S. stocks were left unchanged at 310 million bushels, while Brazilian production was held steady at 180 MMT, consistent with CONAB data showing a 0.12 MMT increase to 180.25 MMT for 2025/26.
Argentina was the key mover in Thursday’s WASDE, with USDA raising the country’s soybean output by 2 MMT to 50 MMT, a revision that drove world carryout for 2025/26 up 0.39 MMT to 125.52 MMT.
The Rosario Grains Exchange separately estimated Argentina’s corn crop at 51.5 MMT, up 1.5 MMT from their previous forecast, adding to the broadly bearish tone across South American supply estimates.
New crop world soybean stocks edged up 0.1 MMT to 124.88 MMT, reinforcing the view that global supplies remain well-cushioned heading into the next marketing year.
July 2026 soybeans are trading at $11.13 and three quarters, down 9 and a quarter cents, while August 2026 soybeans sit at $11.19 and a half, down 8 and a quarter cents, and November 2026 soybeans are at $11.33 and a quarter, down 5 and a quarter cents.
