Senior oil and gas executives have warned the White House that gasoline prices could surge dramatically in the coming months as fuel inventories fall to critically low levels.
Industry officials say they are doing everything possible to alert the administration that prices are about to soar, as commercial and government stockpiles that have cushioned prices so far are rapidly depleting.
Some inventories could be wiped out within weeks, executives have warned, a timeline that would coincide dangerously with the peak summer travel season.
“I have absolutely no doubt the White House — from the president on down — is fully aware of the nearly universal alarm among oil companies and analysts about the direction of travel for oil prices this summer,” said Bob McNally, a former energy adviser.
American Petroleum Institute CEO Mike Sommers, speaking on Fox Business program “Mornings with Maria,” which President Trump frequently watches, delivered a blunt public warning to accompany those made in private.
“We’re sounding the alarm on these inventories going to record lows,” Sommers said, adding: “We should be concerned about what prices we’re going to see over the next few weeks. We have to solve this problem in the Strait of Hormuz.”
Leaders from Exxon Mobil and Chevron met with senior administration officials in late May to flag what they described as dangerously low oil inventory levels across the country.
The root cause is the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of global oil and gas trade, shut down amid escalating tensions with Iran.
As of late May, the average U.S. gasoline price had already reached $4.26 per gallon, representing an increase of $1.28 from where prices stood before the Iran conflict began in late February.
Exxon SVP Neil Chapman told officials that current inventory levels are “unheard of,” warning that sharp price increases could materialize within a matter of weeks if the situation is not addressed.
Industry models show that a collapse of crude inventories could push oil prices up by 50% or more, sending the cost of gas at the pump soaring past $5 per gallon nationwide.
Oil executives worry that such a spike would send the administration scrambling to impose emergency measures, including potentially restricting the export of U.S. fuel to protect domestic supply.
The warnings come as the Trump administration is already confronting the highest rate of inflation in three years, which has contributed to a significant drop in Trump’s standing among voters.
Republicans are reportedly deepening their concern about widespread losses in the midterm elections, which could cost the party control of one or both houses of Congress.
Industry officials say the administration’s reception to their warnings has been mixed, with some officials reportedly dismissing the concerns as hollow given that prices have not surged to $200 per barrel as some early projections suggested.
A senior White House official acknowledged that more information from the industry “is good,” and said the administration would continue to factor input from oil and gas executives into its decision-making.
“But that is one piece of a larger picture that only the president has,” the official said, speaking anonymously for fear of retaliation.
One executive with a major oil company made clear that the industry’s concerns are impossible to ignore, regardless of whether private meetings with officials are taking place.
“They don’t even need to hear from us directly to know there is a problem,” the executive said. “There is no shortage of people out there saying this publicly. The inventories are at historic lows.”
