July ICE NY cocoa (CCN26) fell -177 points, or -4.32%, while July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) dropped -113 points, or -3.66%, as rising supplies weighed heavily on prices.
ICE cocoa inventories climbed to a 1.75-year high of 2,810,211 bags on Thursday, intensifying downward pressure on the commodity.
Last Friday, cocoa prices had already fallen to three-week lows amid forecasts pointing to abundant near-term supplies across major producing regions.
On May 14, the Ivory Coast raised its cocoa delivery estimate to 2.2 MMT for the 2025/26 season, up from a prior projection of 1.8-1.9 MMT, citing favorable weather conditions.
Cumulative data from the Ivory Coast showed farmers shipped 1.64 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year running from October 1, 2025, through May 24, 2026, up 2.5% from the same period a year ago.
On May 11, cocoa prices had surged to four-month highs on concerns that an emerging El Niño weather pattern could bring warmer, drier conditions to West Africa and damage cocoa production.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimated an 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July and persist through year-end, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño.”
Early surveys of the 2026/27 West African cocoa crop show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main harvest beginning in October.
Recent earnings from top chocolate makers Hershey and Mondelez International came in better than expected, suggesting consumer chocolate demand remains steady despite elevated prices.
However, Circana reported on April 14 that chocolate candy sales in North America in the 13 weeks ending March 22 fell 1.3% from the same period a year earlier.
On the demand side, the National Confectioners Association reported that North American first-quarter cocoa grindings fell 3.8% year-over-year to 106,087 MT.
The European Cocoa Association reported that Q1 European cocoa grindings fell 7.8% year-over-year to 325,895 MT, the lowest Q1 figure in 17 years and worse than expectations of a 6% decline.
By contrast, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q1 Asian cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose 5.2% year-over-year to 223,503 MT, well ahead of expectations for a 6.7% decline.
On April 29, StoneX cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 149,000 MT from a January forecast of 267,000 MT, citing El Niño risks to the West African crop.
StoneX also trimmed its 2025/26 global cocoa surplus forecast to 247,000 MT from an earlier January estimate of 287,000 MT, providing additional support for prices.
Bloomberg reported that Nigerian cocoa exports in April fell 20% year-over-year to 14,921 MT, while Nigeria’s Cocoa Association projects 2025/26 production will fall 11% year-over-year to 305,000 MT.
The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is also supporting cocoa prices by reducing fertilizer supplies, boosting shipping rates, insurance costs, and fuel prices, raising costs for cocoa importers.
Ghana cut the official price paid to cocoa farmers by nearly 30% for the 2025/26 growing season, while the Ivory Coast announced a 57% cut to farmer pay beginning with the mid-crop harvest that started this month.
The International Cocoa Organization raised its global 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate to 75,000 MT from 49,000 MT in November, marking the first surplus in four years, while estimating global cocoa production climbed 8.4% year-over-year to 4.7 MMT.
