The race to succeed Donald Trump as the Republican presidential nominee in 2028 is officially not happening yet. Both JD Vance and Ted Cruz will tell you they are focused on the November midterms. Their trips to Iowa this week suggest something different is also going on.
Vance’s visit is the Vice President’s first to Iowa as VP. He will appear alongside Republican Representative Zach Nunn in a competitive southwestern Iowa swing district. Iowa holds the first presidential caucuses in the GOP nominating calendar. Showing up here, as vice president, six months before the midterms sends a clear signal.
Cruz is headlining an Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition event. His speech is titled “Constitutional Courage: Cruzing Toward Victory, A Roadmap for 2026.” He won the 2016 Iowa caucuses. He was the runner-up to Trump in that cycle. He knows exactly what appearing in Iowa means.
When Fox News Digital asked Cruz directly whether he was seriously considering a 2028 run, he said: “There will be plenty of time to make those decisions. I don’t have an announcement for you today.”
Vance has been more careful. He has described 2028 speculation as “premature” and “disloyal” to Trump. He has said his focus is on his job as vice president and on helping Republicans win in November.
Trump himself has promoted a Vance-Rubio ticket, calling it “unstoppable.” He said last year that Vance is “most likely” his heir apparent. Marco Rubio has publicly said that if Vance runs, “he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him.”
Republican strategist David Kochel summed up Iowa’s continued relevance simply: “Iowa’s important.” The state has three competitive House seats plus expected close Senate and gubernatorial races, giving both Vance and Cruz genuine midterm justifications for their visits.
Cruz has been positioning himself as a principled conservative alternative to Vance over recent months. He has pushed back on the Trump administration over tariffs and the FCC chair’s threatened actions against late-night hosts. He has warned about antisemitism in the GOP, including references to Tucker Carlson interviews with extremist figures.
The Republican donor landscape is also beginning to move. A group of GOP donors who support Secretary of State Marco Rubio are quietly working to boost his political profile and keep his options open for 2028. Rubio’s prominent role in the Iran war has increased speculation about his own ambitions.
Early polling gives Vance a commanding lead in any prospective 2028 Republican field. Conservative activist Erika Kirk has already endorsed him. But six months before the midterms, with no formal campaigns declared, the race remains wide open for anyone willing to show up in Iowa and make their case.
