American crude stockpiles shrank by 3.1 million barrels last week, giving oil buyers a domestic supply argument to complement an already tense geopolitical backdrop.
Brent crude futures climbed 35 cents, or 0.35%, to settle at $100.93 a barrel, holding above the psychologically significant triple-digit threshold for another session.
Gasoline inventories also fell during the same reporting period, though distillate stocks moved in the opposite direction, posting a modest rise.
A weather threat added further uncertainty, with a storm tracking toward oil-producing regions in the United States raising the prospect of near-term output disruptions.
Despite the firmer price level, analysts say the market is pricing in risk rather than an actual confirmed loss of barrels from global supply chains.
ING commodity strategists argued that the market “is likely to remain nervous about any potential supply disruptions,” citing continued vessel attacks as evidence that “Middle East supply risks are still very real.”
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman offered some reassurance, announcing that the country’s East-West pipeline had lifted its throughput to 5.8 million barrels per day.
Vitol’s head reported that roughly 12 million barrels per day of crude oil and an additional 2 million barrels per day of refined petroleum products had moved out of the Middle East over the preceding seven to ten days.
That volume represents a meaningful improvement in regional export flows, yet traders remain skeptical about its durability given the security environment surrounding key shipping lanes near the Strait of Hormuz.
PVM analyst Tamas Varga captured the prevailing mood, noting that investors continued to question whether the recent gains in supply and exports could be maintained as geopolitical flashpoints kept multiplying.
Saudi Arabia’s aviation authority confirmed that airports in Jazan and Najran were struck in two separate attacks on Monday evening, the latest escalation attributed to Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi forces.
The pattern of record shipping attacks near the Strait of Hormuz has kept sellers reluctant to drive prices lower, even on sessions where export data offered fundamental reasons to do so.
Markets appear caught between two competing narratives: improving physical supply on one hand, and a security situation that could reverse those gains almost overnight on the other.
Until either the geopolitical tensions ease materially or a confirmed supply disruption forces a reassessment, traders are likely to keep paying a risk premium embedded in every barrel of Brent traded.
