Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reports third quarter results after Wednesday’s closing bell, with Wall Street focused on profits, cash flow, and growing speculation around a potential SpaceX merger.
Analysts expect Tesla to post Q3 revenue of $28.13 billion, roughly flat year over year, according to Bloomberg consensus, with adjusted EPS estimated at $0.44.
Adjusted EBITDA is projected at $3.66 billion, while consensus EBIT of $760 million would represent a 2.7% margin, up from $400 million and 1.4% in the second quarter.
Tesla stock remains down approximately 17% in 2026, though the company has historically staged recoveries in the back half of the year on stronger delivery numbers.
Tesla’s Q3 delivery count of 486,532 vehicles came in down 2% from a year ago, but that figure beat Bloomberg consensus of 463,000 by a meaningful margin.
Energy storage deployments reached 13.7 GWh for the quarter, ahead of both the 12.5 GWh recorded a year ago and Q2’s figure of 13.5 GWh.
Regional sales trends are diverging sharply, with Cox Automotive estimating Tesla sold around 144,100 EVs in the U.S. in Q3, down nearly 20% year over year as the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expiration continued to weigh on demand.
Tesla’s Shanghai operation showed more promise, posting a September wholesale volume of 95,366 vehicles, its best month of 2026, with exports rising 58%, though domestic sales fell 9%.
European momentum was also positive, with Tesla registrations across the EU, UK, and EFTA climbing 43.3% from January through August, per ACEA data.
Free cash flow is expected to be deeply negative, with Tesla’s own sell-side consensus projecting Q3 FCF at negative $4.51 billion and capital expenditures climbing to $7.77 billion for the quarter, compared to nearly $4 billion in positive FCF a year ago.
Tesla has guided to more than $25 billion in capital expenditure for 2026, with funds directed toward Optimus production lines, AI compute, the Cybercab ramp, and the Terafab chip plant being built alongside SpaceX (SPCX).
CEO Elon Musk posted on X over the weekend, stating, “Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla’s value,” signaling his conviction that the heavy spending will ultimately deliver returns.
Tesla launched commercial Cybercab service in Austin on September 3, but the program has attracted regulatory attention, with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration issuing a special order containing 21 requests regarding how Tesla self-certified the vehicle as compliant with federal safety standards.
Tesla requested an extension to November 20, but NHTSA granted only 30 additional days, making responses due October 30.
Tesla also unveiled its long-delayed Roadster last Thursday at SpaceX’s facility in Waco, Texas, where the vehicle used cold-gas thrusters to jump over several Tesla cars, including a Semi, before landing.
Tesla said the Roadster hit 0-60 mph in 0.81 seconds during a test at the event, with Musk confirming production is scheduled to begin in 2028.
Deepwater’s Gene Munster described the reveal as an “engineering flex” with little commercial value, and Morningstar projected the Roadster would sell fewer than 2,000 units annually.
The question generating the most investor interest beyond earnings may be the prospect of a Tesla-SpaceX combination, with Barclays analyst Dan Levy writing last week that a tie-up “has increasingly become the consensus expectation.”
Levy pointed to Tesla’s annual meeting, expected by December 6, as a potential venue for a shareholder vote, with Barclays modeling an all-stock deal in which SpaceX would be the acquirer.
Investors looking for answers on Wednesday may be disappointed, as Musk stated in July that discussing a deal would not be appropriate on an earnings call.
