Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District is shaping up as one of the most contested House battlegrounds heading into the next election cycle.
A new survey from Harrisburg-based Susquehanna Polling and Research shows Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson leading incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Perry by three percentage points, 49 percent to 46 percent.
The poll surveyed 300 likely voters in the district and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percent, meaning Stelson’s lead falls within the statistical margin.
Four percent of voters remained undecided, leaving meaningful room for either candidate to consolidate support before election day.
Stelson previously challenged Perry in 2024, but the Republican held his seat by just over one point, a margin of roughly 5,000 votes.
The former television news anchor, who reported for NBC affiliate WGAL-TV in Lancaster, Pennsylvania before departing the station in 2023, is now mounting her second consecutive bid for the seat.
The two candidates met this week in their only scheduled debate of the election season, trading arguments over the Iran war, healthcare policy, and Perry’s conduct following the 2020 presidential election.
Perry drew attention earlier this year after accusing the Senate of “dereliction of duty” for failing to pass the SAVE America Act, a sweeping voting bill backed by former President Donald Trump.
He also co-sponsored legislation to repeal the 17th Amendment, which grants American voters the direct power to elect U.S. senators rather than leaving that authority to individual state legislatures.
Nonpartisan election forecaster Decision Desk HQ currently gives Stelson a 69 percent probability of flipping the seat to the Democrats, reflecting her status as a narrow favorite in the race.
Control of the House may hinge on a handful of Pennsylvania districts, with the 10th among the seats both parties are targeting most aggressively heading into the final stretch.
The Susquehanna poll was conducted before the candidates’ October 14 debate hosted by abc27, meaning voter sentiment may have shifted further following their only televised face-off.
