Global reliance on imported energy is set to reach its peak by 2034, according to new analysis from Rystad Energy released in October 2026.
The findings come from Rystad’s new Pragmatism scenario, which outlines a significant shift in how countries source and consume energy over the coming decades.
Under this scenario, import dependence among energy-importing countries is projected to fall from approximately 40% today to just 26% by 2050.
The decline reflects a broader structural transformation in global energy systems, driven by accelerating electrification and domestic clean energy buildout across multiple regions.
Nearly 100 countries have moved to shield consumers from the so-called Hormuz shock that rattled global energy markets beginning in February, underscoring how supply disruptions are accelerating policy change.
At the same time, 26 countries have gone further by adopting formal electrification policies designed to reduce long-term exposure to volatile fossil fuel import markets.
Electricity’s share of useful energy consumption is forecast to climb from 28% today to 41% by 2050, representing one of the most consequential shifts in modern energy history.
However, the transition away from Gulf energy supplies is creating new dependencies rather than eliminating them entirely, as Chinese manufacturers move swiftly to fill the gap left by disrupted Gulf exports.
China’s dominance across critical clean technology supply chains is deepening, with the country controlling 78% of global battery cell production capacity and a commanding 96% of solar wafer manufacturing capacity.
Chinese electric vehicles, batteries, and solar equipment are flowing into markets previously anchored to Gulf oil and gas, replacing one form of import dependence with another concentrated in Beijing’s industrial base.
This dynamic poses a strategic challenge for governments pursuing energy security, as diversifying away from fossil fuel imports may simultaneously increase reliance on Chinese-manufactured clean technology components.
Rystad’s analysis suggests that policymakers will need to weigh the geopolitical risks of clean technology concentration alongside the economic and climate benefits of electrification as they chart long-term energy strategies.
The overall trajectory nonetheless points toward a less import-dependent global energy system by mid-century, provided that domestic clean energy investment continues at pace across both advanced and emerging economies.
