Oklo (NYSE: OKLO), trading at $31.78 per share, and NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR), at $6.49, remain development-stage companies with unresolved execution risk after a brutal year for both stocks.

A year ago, both companies were Wall Street darlings riding a wave of nuclear enthusiasm, with Oklo trading at $135.23 after a 537% year-to-date run and NuScale at $46.77 following a 160% gain.

Over the past 12 months, Oklo fell 81.4% and NuScale fell 85.8%, erasing billions in market value as the gap between narrative and commercial reality proved far wider than bulls anticipated.

The SMR thesis rested on three main pillars: the U.S.-U.K. Atlantic Partnership for Advanced Nuclear Energy, compressed NRC licensing timelines of roughly two years, and surging AI data center power demand.

Data center electricity demand did hold up, with the U.S. Department of Energy identifying it as the largest driver of U.S. electricity consumption, and the White House still targets 400 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2050.

What the market priced, however, was faster permits translating into near-term revenue, and a year later NuScale has no definitive TVA agreement and Oklo has no commercial Aurora unit generating power.

The financial picture for both companies underlines how far the rally had outpaced fundamentals, with Oklo reporting trailing revenue of just $1.21 million and NuScale booking only $75,000 last quarter.

There are genuine developments keeping the bull case alive: Oklo holds roughly $3 billion in cash and marketable securities, its Groves isotope reactor reached first criticality roughly 11 months from the start of construction, and its Aurora INL project targets a 2028 startup.

NuScale holds $1.90 billion in cash and investments, owns the only NRC-certified SMR design, and its partner ENTRA1 is in talks with TVA for up to 6 gigawatts of capacity, though that certification moat did nothing to protect shareholders from the collapse.

NuScale’s revenue fell 99.1% once FEED work by Fluor (NYSE: FLR) for RoPower ended, weighted diluted shares jumped to 364.5 million from 133.4 million, and class actions allege misstatements about ENTRA1’s nuclear experience.

Oklo raised its 2026 capital spending guidance to between $400 million and $500 million, and $1.9 billion of its current cash came from at-the-market share sales, moderating the long-term optimism that the balance sheet initially inspired.

Analyst consensus still points to substantial upside, with Oklo’s average price target of $75.38 implying 137.2% gains across 23 analysts and NuScale’s $11.77 target implying 81.4% upside across 18 analysts, though targets carry no guarantee.

Over the same period that both SMR stocks fell more than 80%, the S&P 500 gained 17.3%, and year to date Oklo is down 55.7% and NuScale 54.2% against a 14.0% index gain.

A signed TVA power agreement, a final notice to proceed in Romania, or early revenue from Oklo’s Idaho isotope lab could each serve as genuine re-rating catalysts in the months ahead.

Conversely, further spending increases, additional share dilution without orders, or a slip in the Aurora INL timeline past 2028 would each represent meaningful setbacks for investors still holding either position.

The SMR trade earns substance only when a reactor sells power under a binding contract, and until that milestone is reached both stocks remain development-stage bets on a future that has not yet materialized.