California faces a dramatically elevated risk of powerful, moisture-laden storms this fall and winter, driven by an El Niño event that forecasters say could become the strongest in recorded history.
Governor Newsom has proclaimed a state of emergency, mobilizing state resources and streamlining procurement procedures ahead of the anticipated wave of severe weather impacts.
The emergency declaration directs state agencies to lead flood-risk-reduction efforts and stage critical flood-fighting supplies, including sandbags and pumps, across vulnerable regions.
Caltrans has been ordered to pre-position traffic-control, road-closure, and snow-removal equipment along the highways considered most at risk from storm damage.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has significantly ramped up its precipitation forecast, now expecting above-normal rainfall across much of California during December, January, and February.
NOAA gives the current El Niño event a 69% chance of becoming the strongest in its modern record, which dates back to 1950, a figure that has alarmed emergency planners statewide.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has aligned with NOAA’s outlook, independently pointing to a wetter-than-normal California winter driven by the strengthening event.
The odds for major rainfall are highest across the southern half of the state, where atmospheric circulation patterns tied to strong El Niño events historically funnel the heaviest precipitation.
“The 2026 El Niño has now reached the ‘very strong’ or ‘super’ El Niño category,” one Earth system science professor noted, adding that sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific have crossed the threshold associated with that designation.
“The latest sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean have crossed the threshold associated with a very strong El Niño, and current forecasts indicate that the event will continue to strengthen through the fall,” the professor said.
Scientists warn, however, that a record-strength El Niño does not guarantee an exceptionally wet winter for Southern California, noting that the 2015-16 super El Niño similarly raised expectations that ultimately went unmet.
Elevated sea levels are expected to compound the danger, potentially contributing to damaging coastal flooding and significant beach erosion along the West Coast during powerful storms and the highest tides.
What occurs in the Sierra Nevada will be a decisive factor in determining California’s overall flood risk, with above-normal precipitation forecast but rain-versus-snow outcomes remaining dependent on temperatures.
