D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS), trading at $15.79, has become one of the worst-performing quantum stocks of 2026, shedding nearly 40% year to date while analysts remain almost unanimously bullish.
The stock sits more than 66% below its 52-week high of $46.75, yet the consensus price target across 17 analysts stands at $34.65, implying approximately 119% upside from current levels.
The most aggressive call belongs to Rosenblatt Securities analyst John McPeake, who holds a Street-high price target of $43.00, representing roughly 172% upside from where shares trade today.
D-Wave is unique among quantum computing companies in pursuing both annealing and gate-model systems, running production workloads for enterprise customers including AT&T and Optum.
In January 2026, the company acquired Quantum Circuits to add gate-model capability, a deal that came with a cash payment of approximately $250 million and contributed to cash and investments falling from $819.3 million to $546.2 million.
The selloff was triggered by a damaging second-quarter earnings report, with revenue of $3.08 million coming in 23.63% below the consensus estimate of $4.03 million and roughly flat compared to the prior year.
Operating expenses nearly doubled to $54.98 million, adjusted EBITDA losses grew 85% to $37.1 million, and GAAP earnings per share of -$0.13 missed the -$0.0914 estimate by a meaningful margin.
Despite the miss, Rosenblatt reiterated its Buy rating, arguing that D-Wave’s annealing systems already solve real optimization problems for paying customers, giving it a revenue foundation that pure gate-model rivals currently lack.
First-half bookings surged to $35.5 million compared to just $2.9 million in the same period a year earlier, and remaining performance obligations rose 668% to $40.7 million, with roughly 57% expected to be recognized within 12 months.
Management guided for third-quarter revenue to be “up modestly” and fourth-quarter revenue to be “up significantly,” with two annealing system deliveries anticipated before year end.
The company does not expect meaningful gate-model cloud revenue until 2032, meaning the near-term investment thesis rests almost entirely on the commercial annealing business and the Leap cloud platform generating high-margin recurring revenue.
Among peers, IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) is down just 3.52% year to date at $43.33, Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) has fallen 31.51% to $15.17, and Quantum Computing Inc. (NASDAQ: QUBT) is off 23.39% at $7.86, making D-Wave the hardest hit in the group.
Shares trade below both the 50-day moving average of $18.14 and the 200-day moving average of $20.80, reflecting sustained selling pressure since the earnings report.
At a price-to-sales ratio of 481.83 on trailing revenue of $12.425 million, the valuation demands that the bookings backlog converts to recognized revenue on schedule and that production customers like AT&T and Optum deepen their commitments.
Of the 17 analysts covering QBTS, one rates it Strong Buy, 15 rate it Buy, and one rates it Hold, with no Sell ratings, leaving the fourth quarter as the critical test of whether Rosenblatt’s $43.00 target is a realistic destination or an increasingly distant aspiration.
