December ICE NY cocoa (ICE: CCZ26) dropped 114 points, or 1.89%, while December ICE London cocoa (CAZ26) fell 74 points, or 1.69%, on Tuesday.
Pressure on cocoa prices stems primarily from fresh supply data out of the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, pointing to robust output levels.
Cumulative shipments from Ivory Coast farmers to ports reached 2.14 million metric tons in the current marketing year running from October 1, 2025, through September 13, 2026, up 18% from the same period a year ago.
Ivory Coast cocoa regulator Le Conseil du Café Cacao separately reported that the country harvested 2.06 million metric tons of cocoa from June 2025 to June 2026, a 30% increase from 1.58 million metric tons a year earlier.
ICE cocoa inventories climbed to a two-year high of 3,436,742 bags on September 4, remaining elevated at 3,421,136 bags as of Monday, adding further downward pressure on futures.
Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s biggest cocoa processor, stated on September 2 that the global cocoa market is well supplied, leaving it better positioned to manage risks than during the 2023/24 El Niño event that drove cocoa to record highs.
Despite the bearish supply picture, prices retain some support from Ghana, where the cocoa industry regulator proposed raising farmers’ pay by 6% for the 2026/27 season, a move that could prompt growers to withhold sales in pursuit of higher prices.
Ghana’s Cocoa Board estimated on August 20 that the 2026/27 Ghana cocoa crop will reach 650,000 metric tons, a 13% decline from 750,000 metric tons the previous year, adding a bullish counterweight to the supply gains from Ivory Coast.
Early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop show below-average cherelle formation on trees, with an average production estimate of 1.8 million metric tons for the season starting this month, down 18% from approximately 2.2 million metric tons in 2025/26.
COCOBOD, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, projected on July 30 that Ghana’s 2026/27 output could fall to between 450,000 and 550,000 metric tons from a projected 750,000 metric tons in 2025/26, citing swollen shoot disease, aging farms, and likely adverse El Niño weather.
StoneX cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 metric tons on July 29, down sharply from a forecast of 149,000 metric tons in April, citing risks to West African production from an expected El Niño.
Transgraph Consulting forecast on July 23 that the global cocoa surplus will shrink to 80,000 metric tons in 2026/27 from 415,000 metric tons in 2025/26, tied to an anticipated production decline to 4.87 million metric tons from 5.11 million metric tons.
The US Climate Prediction Center warned on July 8 that the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years, threatening West African cocoa yields through warmer and drier conditions.
Cloudy weather and limited sunshine across the Ivory Coast and Ghana are enabling black pod disease to spread, undermining cocoa bean quality even as overall production volumes remain strong.
Cocoa demand sent mixed signals in the second quarter, with European cocoa grindings falling 4.6% to 316,366 metric tons, while North American grindings rose an unexpected 7.7% year-on-year to 109,659 metric tons, and Asian grindings surged 25% year-on-year to 224,646 metric tons.
