Early delivery lead times for Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models are tracking below those recorded during last year’s iPhone 17 launch, according to JPMorgan analysts.
JPMorgan analysts led by Samik Chatterjee monitored delivery lead times across the US, China, Germany, and the UK during the first week of pre-orders as a proxy for consumer demand.
Apple announced the iPhone 18 series on September 9, with pre-orders for the Pro and Pro Max opening September 12 and general availability set for September 18.
Globally, home-delivery lead times averaged seven days for the iPhone 18 Pro and 19 days for the Pro Max, compared with 15 and 24 days respectively for the equivalent iPhone 17 models a year earlier.
“The shortfall relative to last year is more notable in the Pro SKU rather than the Pro Max SKU,” the JPMorgan analysts said.
In the US, which accounts for approximately 34% of iPhone shipments, lead times came in at two days for the iPhone 18 Pro and 22 days for the Pro Max, versus four and 21 days for the prior-year equivalents.
JPMorgan noted that US Pro Max delivery times were “tracking modestly ahead of the prior year even as the Pro tracks lower,” suggesting demand for the larger model remains relatively resilient.
China recorded the steepest year-on-year decline, with lead times for both the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max coming in at 13 and 21 days respectively, compared with 30 days for both equivalent models a year earlier.
China represents approximately 19% of iPhone shipments, and JPMorgan said it expects Apple’s forthcoming foldable device, called Duo, to attract meaningful demand there because consumers “are already primed for adoption of the foldable form factor” after years of exposure to foldable phones from domestic manufacturers.
In Germany, lead times stood at five days for the iPhone 18 Pro and 16 days for the Pro Max, down from 14 and 22 days a year earlier, while UK lead times came in at nine and 19 days, compared with 14 and 22 days previously.
Germany and the UK represent approximately 3% and 4% of global iPhone shipments respectively, making them smaller but still informative data points for gauging regional demand trends.
Despite the broadly shorter lead times, JPMorgan cautioned that the early-cycle data should not be taken as a definitive read on underlying demand for the new Pro lineup.
The analysts noted that “supply allocations across the Pro Max and Pro SKU can be different from prior years” given structural changes to this year’s product rollout, including the absence of a base model launch alongside the Pro tiers.
The staggered introduction of the iPhone Duo foldable this autumn adds another variable, as some consumers may be deferring an upgrade decision until they can evaluate Apple’s first entry into the foldable smartphone category.
JPMorgan said tracking how delivery lead times evolve over the coming weeks will be essential to forming a clearer picture of demand momentum for the iPhone 18 Pro models.
