September opens with a packed week for investors, combining a critical labor market report, major technology earnings, and a closely watched Tesla event likely to drive significant market moves.

Friday’s August jobs report stands out as the single biggest potential catalyst, with economists forecasting the US economy added 58,000 jobs last month, unemployment holding at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month over month.

Forecasts vary meaningfully across major banks, with Deutsche Bank projecting payrolls rising 65,000, Wells Fargo forecasting an 80,000 gain, and UBS expecting 65,000 new jobs alongside unemployment edging higher to 4.2%.

The report follows July’s surprise loss of 23,000 jobs, giving investors their first major post-Jackson Hole read on the health of the US labor market.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish message at Jackson Hole last week, saying recent improvements in inflation data have not convinced him that underlying price pressures have meaningfully improved.

Warsh also described the labor market as broadly consistent with full employment, reinforcing the view that the Fed is in no rush to pivot toward easier monetary policy.

A stronger-than-expected employment and wage figure could push short-term Treasury yields higher and weigh on equities, while softer wage growth could ease recent hawkishness and support stock valuations heading into the Fed’s September meeting.

Investors will receive several early signals before Friday, with JOLTS data due Tuesday, ADP private payrolls Wednesday, manufacturing ISM on Tuesday, and services ISM arriving Thursday.

The AI spending debate will dominate the earnings calendar, with Dell Technologies reporting Tuesday and investors searching for evidence of continued demand for AI servers and data-center infrastructure.

Broadcom follows with results that will offer another closely watched read on the strength of AI infrastructure spending across the technology sector.

Snowflake and Hewlett Packard Enterprise report Wednesday, while Palo Alto Networks, MongoDB, Zscaler, and Ciena headline Thursday’s slate of technology results.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Swissquote’s senior analyst, said the central question for investors is no longer whether AI demand is real, but how the market feels about financing the enormous cost of meeting it.

“There is no doubt whatsoever regarding how strong AI demand is, and how thoroughly Big Tech will continue throwing money into building AI infrastructure,” Ozkardeskaya said.

“The real question is: how do investors feel about financing that spending, knowing that over the past three years, Big Tech companies have moved from a cash-rich/capital-light investment model toward a low/negative-cash, capital-intensive model? Big Tech – the big buyers of chips and equipment – are putting more leverage on their shoulders to continue spending,” she added.

Apple is also set for a significant leadership transition, with John Ternus taking over as CEO from Tim Cook on Tuesday, drawing investor attention to the company’s product strategy and AI ambitions.

With the Fed’s September meeting on the horizon and major data and earnings converging in a single week, Friday’s jobs report is poised to set the tone for markets across the entire month ahead.