Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) gains its first new chief executive in 15 years on September 1, as John Ternus officially succeeds Tim Cook in the top role.

Ternus, Apple’s head of hardware engineering and a 25-year veteran of the company, steps into the CEO chair while Cook transitions to the role of executive chairman of the board.

Apple’s board announced the succession plan in April and approved it unanimously, marking one of the most closely watched leadership transitions in corporate history.

The handoff is a planned, internal promotion, a model that large technology firms have historically favored when managing high-stakes executive transitions.

Apple enters the change near record territory, with its market capitalization approaching $4.6 trillion, a figure more than 30% above where it stood a year ago.

Shares currently sit approximately 9% below the all-time high the stock set earlier this summer, and the company is trading at around 36 times earnings.

Since 2011, four planned CEO handoffs involving internal promotions at U.S. megacap technology companies have completed a full first year, providing a small but meaningful historical reference point.

Those four transitions produced first-year stock returns ranging from a loss of 38% to a gain of 76%, a wide band that underscores how much the underlying business environment shapes outcomes far more than the leadership change itself.

History suggests the handoff alone is unlikely to move the stock meaningfully, as markets have not demonstrably feared any planned megacap succession in recent decades.

What history does indicate is that Ternus’s first-year performance will likely be determined by what he inherited: the iPhone product cycle, the trajectory of artificial intelligence features, and a valuation that already demands a great deal from the business.

For existing Apple shareholders, the transition does not appear to present a compelling reason to exit the position, though investors should temper expectations given the stock’s current price level.

As one analyst framing put it, the first-year return will be decided by what Ternus inherited, not by the act of succession itself.