Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) has shed 31% of its market value over roughly three months, falling from $232.54 to $160.56 per share.

Over that same stretch, the company nearly doubled its long-term non-handset revenue target and secured a deal to supply Meta with data center CPUs.

Markets did not discount Qualcomm’s stated ambitions. They discounted the calendar those ambitions depend on.

In late June, the company raised its fiscal 2029 non-handset revenue target to $40 billion, up from $22 billion, with more than $15 billion of that sum earmarked for the data center segment.

Qualcomm’s entire trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $44.07 billion, meaning that single target alone represents nearly the full scale of today’s company.

The centerpiece of that target, the Meta data center CPU agreement, is anchored to the Dragonfly C1000 chip, which does not enter production until the second half of 2028.

Automotive is the fastest-moving segment already generating real returns, posting a record $1.6 billion in revenue on 61% year-over-year growth in fiscal Q3 2026.

Despite that momentum, automotive represents only around one-sixth of the $9.9 billion in total revenue Qualcomm booked during that same quarter.

Qualcomm was also named BMW’s lead compute silicon provider for next-generation ADAS and digital cockpit systems during the period, adding to its longer-term pipeline credentials.

On the cost side, management has flagged rising input pressures across wafer fabrication, assembly, test, and memory, pushing QCT gross margins slightly below their historical baseline range of 48% to 50%.

Qualcomm’s double-digit price increases can only feed through as contracts and product cycles turn, meaning relief is not immediate.

Rising memory prices are also compressing the handset market itself, contributing to a 20% year-over-year decline in QCT Android revenue that management estimates at more than $1.50 of earnings per share.

Apple’s wind-down from Qualcomm modems then accelerated the pressure further, with Qualcomm’s share of the upcoming iPhone launch expected to land materially below the previously estimated 20%.

Apple product revenue is forecast to fall roughly 50% from the September quarter to the December quarter, a step-down that is already embedded inside current guidance.

Management projects Android growth will significantly offset that decline, and non-handset revenue growth is expected to accelerate from 24% in fiscal 2026 to more than 60% in fiscal 2027.

The stated goal is to replace all of fiscal 2026’s Apple product revenue through that non-handset expansion, but the replacement remains a forecast while the revenue step-down is already locked in.

The broader semiconductor sector also declined over the period, with Broadcom falling 15.3% and Intel dropping 28.2%, though both represented smaller losses than Qualcomm’s decline across the same window.

The S&P 500 returned 2.1% over those three months, further highlighting how sharply Qualcomm underperformed relative to the broader market.

Two custom silicon engagements that already carry purchase orders and started wafers are expected to begin generating revenue in the December quarter, offering the nearest-term proof point for the growth thesis.

Management has acknowledged that a new entrant into data center compute must demonstrate proof points, and the December quarter will begin testing whether Qualcomm’s execution schedule holds.

Management also expects the first wave of data center revenue to carry a 1.5% to 2% drag on QCT’s weighted average gross margin, adding another variable to an already complex transition period.

The central question for investors is whether Qualcomm’s share price decline has already outrun the underlying facts. Based on what is known today, costs are inside the guidance and the growth set against them is not yet confirmed.