India’s northeastern Assam state, which produces approximately 52% of the country’s tea, is facing a compounding crisis driven by climate change and economic pressure.

More than 50 tea gardens were damaged following a devastating storm that swept across parts of Assam, disrupting work for weeks and deepening uncertainty for workers.

Plantation worker Sumitra Tanti described the situation plainly: “Life has become unpredictable. The weather can disrupt work, while wages remain low and work is not as dependable as it once was.”

Fellow worker Bidesh Kamar, who has spent 15 years on tea plantations, said the underlying economics have fundamentally shifted: “Tea is not as profitable as it once was, and there is less certainty about the work.”

Kamar is now considering whether it is time to “move on to greener pastures,” a sentiment that reflects a broader and growing trend across the region.

Assam’s tea industry supports around 700,000 plantation workers and 140,000 small tea growers, all of whom depend on a labor-intensive model that is increasingly under threat.

Oversupply has pushed market prices down, while higher wages, fertilizer and fuel costs continue to squeeze producers from the other side.

Sanjiv Gogoi, owner of the 400-acre Sanjiv Tea estate, told DW that “productivity has fallen, and the labor supply is not always reliable” as workers leave because the work no longer pays enough.

Gogoi added that pressure is even greater on small growers, who produce nearly half of Assam’s tea, noting they “have little bargaining power and often have to sell their freshly picked leaves to factories at low prices.”

Rising temperatures in Assam’s major tea-growing districts now regularly reach between 36 and 40 degrees Celsius, placing both tea plants and outdoor workers under severe heat stress.

Research indicates that every 1-degree Celsius rise in temperature can reduce tea yields by approximately 87 kilos per hectare across India, compounding the industry’s financial difficulties.

According to India’s North Eastern Tea Association (NETA), labor costs now account for roughly 60% of all production costs, leaving plantations caught between rising wages and persistently weak market prices.

Plantation workers currently earn between 250 and 280 Indian Rupees per day, equivalent to roughly $2.63 to $2.94, while unions are demanding between 350 and 500 Rupees to keep pace with the rising cost of living.

Bidyananda Barkakoty, tea farmer adviser at NETA and former vice-chairman of the Tea Board of India, described “the widening gap between the cost of producing tea and the price we realize from the market” as the industry’s most fundamental concern.

Barkakoty warned that the departure of experienced workers is directly affecting both productivity and quality, as skilled leaf-plucking becomes harder to maintain with a shrinking workforce.

Absenteeism in some tea-growing districts has reportedly exceeded 50%, as workers opt for construction, urban employment or government schemes offering faster and more reliable financial returns.

Harkirat Singh Sidhu, a veteran tea planter with more than 55 years of experience across plantations in nine countries, argues the industry must move proactively: “We need to make the changes and not be pushed into making changes.”

Sidhu predicted that labor shortages will worsen, “making mechanization a necessity rather than an option,” and advocates for regenerative farming, upgraded drainage, shade canopy management and reduced reliance on chemical pesticides.

The industry faces a difficult downward spiral, as falling productivity reduces revenues and leaves estates with less capacity to invest in replanting, irrigation and climate adaptation measures.

Barkakoty offered a clear diagnosis of what must change, saying “the younger generation will stay only when they see a future in the tea gardens, not merely a job,” pointing to the need for better incomes, living conditions and skilled roles through technology.