India’s Russian crude imports have fallen sharply from record highs as China resumes aggressive buying to compensate for the near-total collapse of Iranian oil supply.
One of the key stabilizing forces in global oil markets during the Iran war has been India absorbing record volumes of Russian crude, helping prevent a more dramatic price spike.
That balancing act is now under threat, with China increasingly competing for the same barrels that India has relied upon since the Middle East conflict disrupted global supply chains.
China’s seaborne imports of Russian crude are estimated at 1.25 million barrels per day in August, down from 1.423 million bpd in July but still among the strongest months for Russian seaborne crude since April.
The surge in Chinese demand for Russian oil is a direct consequence of the near-collapse in Iranian supply, with China expected to receive just 340,000 bpd from Iran this month.
That figure represents roughly one-third of the 1.14 million bpd China imported from Iran in March, before U.S. and Israeli aerial strikes on February 28 prompted Tehran to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz.
The closure of the strait, achieved through missile and drone strikes on passing vessels, disrupted a waterway that previously handled nearly 20% of the world’s crude oil and refined products.
While volumes through the strait have recovered in recent weeks, they remain well below pre-war levels, forcing major importers to scramble for alternative supply routes and sources.
China typically sources the bulk of its Russian seaborne oil from eastern ports supplying the ESPO grade, but it is now reaching farther west into Russia’s European port network.
Russian crude loaded from European ports is expected to account for 31% of China’s seaborne Russian imports in August, a significant jump from just 22% in June.
India traditionally takes the bulk of its Russian crude from those same western ports, meaning the two nations are now in direct competition for a limited pool of European-loaded Russian barrels.
India’s Russian imports are estimated at 1.87 million bpd in August, down sharply from a record 2.79 million bpd in July and 2.73 million bpd in June, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.
Imports specifically from Russia’s European ports are expected to fall by approximately 770,000 bpd, or nearly 30%, during August alone.
India’s total crude imports are consequently estimated at just 4.17 million bpd in August, the lowest level since the Iran war began and down from 5.06 million bpd in July.
Kpler noted that the August figure may be revised higher as additional cargo shipments are identified and recorded in tracking data.
The downstream consequences for Asian fuel markets could be significant, given that India is a major exporter of diesel and gasoline into a regional market already running short of both products.
August exports of light and middle distillates from India are holding at 1.29 million bpd, but any sustained drop in crude throughput threatens to tighten that supply further.
The broader situation highlights how the Iran war has created cascading realignments across global energy trade, forcing the world’s two largest crude importers into intensifying competition over available Russian supply.
