NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) is widely discussed in the context of surging data center energy demand, but that narrative misses the real story driving the stock in 2026.

The company’s small modular reactors are frequently cited as an ideal solution for delivering large-scale, reliable power to an electricity grid under increasing strain from artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout.

That long-term demand tailwind is real, but a far more immediate and consequential catalyst is currently taking shape, one that could dramatically reprice the stock before the year is out.

NuScale holds a unique regulatory position in the United States, remaining the only nuclear developer to have received federal approval to build a small modular reactor system.

Despite that regulatory advantage, the company has yet to commercialize any of its approved designs, leaving its business model without a single firm revenue-generating contract.

That could change this year, with the company indicating it may be approaching a power purchase agreement with a major utility customer that would unlock construction and set a path toward actual revenue.

Earlier in 2026, NuScale’s chief financial officer predicted that a power purchase agreement could be signed with the Tennessee Valley Authority, the largest public utility in the country.

The TVA has already agreed in principle to pursue a six-gigawatt small modular reactor system, but has not yet made any firm financial commitments to the project.

A signed power purchase agreement would obligate the TVA to buy power from the system at a fixed price over a multi-year period, giving NuScale the commercial foundation needed to begin construction.

NuScale shares have shed roughly 40% of their value so far in 2026, a decline driven largely by fading investor confidence in the company’s ability to convert its project pipeline into real contracts.

A firm commitment from the TVA, which represents the largest customer in NuScale’s pipeline, would represent a major sentiment shift and could reverse a significant portion of that decline.

The broader nuclear energy investment thesis remains intact over the long term, but a TVA power purchase agreement would be the single most important near-term driver of the company’s stock price.

Whether the deal is finalized before year-end remains uncertain, but the stakes for NuScale’s valuation and commercial credibility could not be higher if and when it arrives.