Walmart (NYSE: WMT) is set to report its second quarter results Thursday, with Wall Street bracing for a notable deceleration in domestic same-store sales growth.
Bloomberg consensus data shows analysts forecasting same-store sales growth of 3.7%, which would represent the weakest second quarter performance since 2020.
Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joe Feldman identified e-commerce momentum, faster fulfillment, membership revenue increases, and market share gains among wealthier households as key drivers of quarterly results.
Feldman cautioned, however, that those gains could be offset by “general pressure on consumer spending from increased gas prices from the Iran war and broader inflation.”
Wall Street believes customers visited Walmart more frequently during the quarter but spent less per trip, reflecting a broader pattern of cautious consumer behavior.
E-commerce sales are expected to have surged 22% overall, with a 4.5% increase in the US, partly tied to promotional activity designed to compete with Amazon’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) Prime Day event.
Feldman wrote that “advertising, merchant services, membership, and last-mile delivery should lead to growing operating income faster than sales,” signaling confidence in Walmart’s diversified revenue streams beyond core retail.
Bank of America analyst Christopher Nardone expressed optimism that Walmart can still deliver an earnings beat and a guidance raise, “as long as the rest of the business remains strong,” even if same-store sales growth disappoints.
Analysts are expecting second quarter earnings per share of $0.75 on average, above the company’s own guided range of $0.72 to $0.74 in constant currency issued during the first quarter.
CFO John David Rainey flagged “hundreds of millions of dollars of pressure from higher fuel prices” as a central reason behind the retailer’s cautious approach to full-year guidance.
For fiscal year 2027, Walmart forecast revenue growth of 3.5% to 4.5% and adjusted earnings of $2.75 to $2.85, falling short of Wall Street’s original estimate of $2.97 per share.
Deutsche Bank analyst Krisztina Katai noted that Walmart typically waits until the second quarter to update its full-year guidance, meaning Thursday’s report will be closely watched for any revision to those conservative projections.
IEEPA tariff refunds were excluded from the company’s guidance, though Walmart indicated it could be eligible for a return worth roughly 0.5% of its US annual sales, representing approximately $2.4 billion based on 2025 revenue of $483 billion.
Rainey stated Walmart plans to “prioritize price investment” if it receives a refund, a strategy that appears to have already materialized through price cuts on thousands of items including beef, chips, and soda introduced in early July.
Investors will also be watching for commentary on back-to-school season performance and early holiday planning, both of which will shape sentiment heading into the second half of the fiscal year.
