DA Davidson cut its price target on Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) to $175 from $250 on Monday, a 30% reduction driven by construction delays at the company’s Vineland, New Jersey data center project.
The firm maintained its Neutral rating on the stock following a site visit and attendance at a local public hearing related to the Vineland facility.
At the share price of $191.53 cited at the time of publication, the revised target implied roughly 8.6% downside for investors holding the neocloud operator’s stock.
DA Davidson lowered its estimates after concluding that the Vineland facility may not be completed during 2026, a setback that could strip potential upside from Nebius’ full-year guidance.
The firm warned that the delay could also weaken the execution advantage that has distinguished Nebius from other neocloud operators competing for enterprise AI infrastructure contracts.
Despite the revised outlook, Nebius shares had gained 173% over the preceding year, giving the company a market capitalization of approximately $48.1 billion at the price cited in the report.
DA Davidson noted that the stock’s strong performance reflected Nebius’ track record of delivering capacity on schedule, making the Vineland project a critical test of whether it can sustain that pace.
In September 2025, Nebius reached an agreement to provide Microsoft with dedicated AI infrastructure from the new Vineland data center, and the company said in July that it had handed over the latest planned capacity tranche to Microsoft and remained on track for remaining deliveries.
The local planning process in Vineland covers both an existing 129,622-square-foot facility and a proposed 587,980-square-foot expansion with additional energy infrastructure, with the Planning Board holding a special meeting on August 5 at the Landis Theatre to accommodate an expected crowd.
Nebius has disclosed more than $40 billion in contracted revenue from investment-grade customers, including Microsoft and Meta, with asset-level financing expected to support similar long-term deployments going forward.
The company is scheduled to report earnings on Wednesday, with options pricing implying a potential 13% move around the results, according to Investing.com.
Piper Sandler recently initiated coverage of Nebius at Neutral with a $224 price target, while Baird began coverage at Outperform with a $250 target, reflecting a divided view among analysts on the stock’s near-term trajectory.
Construction timing and customer handovers remain central to Nebius’ capacity expansion model, meaning any further slippage at Vineland could have an outsized impact on investor confidence heading into the second half of 2026.
