Wall Street remains broadly bullish on Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), even as the stock has endured a brutal stretch tied closely to Bitcoin’s prolonged decline.
The 24/7 Wall St. price target for MSTR stands at $338.56, implying 260.05% upside from a current price of $94.03, with a buy recommendation and a moderate 50% confidence level.
MSTR has fallen 79.37% over the past year, 38.12% year to date, and 23.43% over the past month, sitting just above its 52-week low of $81.81 and far below its $454.33 high.
Bitcoin itself is down 46.63% over the same one-year period, trading at $63,658.88, creating a compounding headwind for a company whose entire equity thesis is built around BTC accumulation.
Q1 2026 results showed an EPS of -$38.25 against a -$18.98 estimate, reflecting a $14.46 billion unrealized Bitcoin mark, while subscription revenue surged to $58.88 million during the period.
Strategy now holds 818,334 BTC after raising $11.68 billion year to date, and management has authorized $2 billion in buybacks under what the company calls its Digital Credit Capital Framework.
CEO Phong Le has reinforced the company’s conviction, stating: “Adoption of Bitcoin continues to grow in 2026. Digital Credit, highlighted by STRC, has been a big success.”
The STRC preferred instrument has scaled to an $8.5 billion market cap in just nine months, adding another layer of capital-raising capacity to an already heavily leveraged balance sheet.
Benchmark Equity Research reiterated its Buy rating on MSTR, and 13 of the 14 analysts currently covering the stock rate it a Buy, with a consensus price target of $303.64.
The bull case scenario projects a price of $488.25, powered by Bitcoin recovering toward prior highs and MSTR’s leveraged beta of 3.545 amplifying any upward move in the underlying asset.
On the risk side, MSTR carries $8.17 billion in long-term debt and $229.53 million in quarterly preferred dividends, with only $2.21 billion in cash available to service those obligations.
Polymarket currently assigns a 36% probability to MSTR being removed from the MSCI index by year-end, and a Rosen Law Firm investigation adds further legal uncertainty to the picture.
The bear case price target sits at $259.08, though analysts warn that forced deleveraging or a prolonged Bitcoin drawdown could drive outcomes well below that floor.
By comparison, Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) posted $1.41 billion in Q1 revenue, down 30.54% year over year, at a market cap of $35.7 billion, just slightly above MSTR’s $34.4 billion valuation.
MARA Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA), a Bitcoin mining peer with a $4.35 billion market cap, carries a price-to-book ratio of 1.25, compared to MSTR’s 0.91, meaning Strategy trades below book value on its Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet.
That discount to book value, combined with near-unanimous analyst conviction, forms the core of the $338.56 price target and the buy recommendation that accompanies it.
Looking further ahead, the 24/7 Wall St. model projects MSTR could reach $725 by 2028, $1,650 by 2029, and $3,100 by 2030, assuming Bitcoin resumes its long-term uptrend and Strategy avoids forced deleveraging.
Those longer-range projections carry substantial execution risk tied to BTC price levels, MSCI index inclusion status, and the sustainability of the company’s preferred dividend structure over time.
