Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares rose 1% overnight Sunday as investors balanced a strong second-quarter delivery rebound against fresh warnings that the stock remains richly valued.
Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund, said he expects Tesla stock to rebound this week as sell-side analysts revise their earnings estimates upward following the company’s stronger-than-expected delivery report.
Tesla reported 480,126 global vehicle deliveries in Q2, representing a 25% increase from the same period a year earlier, while energy deployments grew 41% over the same period.
“I expect TSLA stock to rebound this week as the sell-side climbs over one another to increase 2Q and FY’26 earnings ests,” Black said, adding that higher estimates “could boost TSLA price targets.”
Despite the optimism, Black cautioned that Tesla trades at a 2026 price-to-earnings multiple of over 200x, compared with expected long-term earnings per share growth of approximately 35% for the 2027-2032 period, resulting in a 6x PEG ratio.
That elevated valuation, Black said, “continues to suggest TSLA is fully priced,” tempering expectations even as delivery numbers impressed across the street.
Black also noted that Tesla’s Q2 delivery strength may have been driven more by rising gasoline prices than investor enthusiasm around autonomy, pointing out that the average price of a gallon of gas climbed from $2.98 before the U.S.-Iran war to $3.86 over the July 4 weekend, after peaking at $4.56 in June.
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco noted that Tesla’s Q2 deliveries beat sell-side consensus by 18% and marked the company’s highest automotive growth rate since the third quarter of 2023, though the firm maintained its Equal Weight rating and $415 price target.
Morningstar raised its fair value estimate for Tesla to $450 from $425 following the delivery report, saying results came in nearly 20% above the company-compiled consensus, while noting it was “surprised by the July 2 selloff.”
Morningstar said “the majority” of its Tesla valuation stems from AI software and robotics ventures, with robotaxi accounting for 35%, FSD software subscriptions nearly 20%, and Optimus humanoid robot sales and subscriptions nearly 30% of its fair value estimate.
The firm also said Tesla’s full self-driving software is “starting to be approved for use by multiple European countries,” which it expects will support delivery growth across the region and lift automotive gross profit margins.
Over the weekend, Tesla Robotaxi announced its service is now available in Miami, posting on X: “What’s up with Miami? Robotaxi now available in Miami.”
Tesla also introduced the Model Y Long Wheelbase in the U.S. and Puerto Rico last week, featuring a six-seat layout, 325 miles of estimated range, and support for FSD Supervised with integrated Grok AI.
TSLA stock rose 4% last week, snapping a two-week losing streak, though the gains followed a 7% single-day drop on Thursday that rattled investor confidence.
So far in 2026, Tesla remains the second-worst performer among its Magnificent Seven peers, carrying a 13% year-to-date loss even as broader technology stocks have outperformed.
Tesla is scheduled to report full second-quarter earnings on July 22, when investors will be watching for margin details, robotaxi expansion updates, Cybercab progress, and the company’s broader AI roadmap.
