SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares have collapsed sharply since options trading launched on June 16, falling from a high of roughly $225 to lows around $147, with the stock trading in the $150s.
Analyst and host Scott Melker of “The Daily Wolf” on Yahoo Finance described the price action as “the most telegraphed predictable pump and dump situation in history,” pointing to the structural dynamics behind the move.
For the first four days of trading, there were no sellers, no options, and no ability to short the stock, meaning all buyers had to purchase shares directly on the open market.
Once options launched, institutional players were finally able to short into retail demand, and the stock has dropped sharply ever since, following a pattern Melker compared to Bitcoin’s December 2017 peak.
Melker noted that December 17, 2017 was “to the day” the moment CBOE and later CME launched Bitcoin futures, which marked the top of the Bitcoin bull cycle as institutions gained the ability to short the asset.
Adding further pressure, SpaceX raised $25 billion in a debt sale less than two weeks after its IPO, and while demand was nearly four times the amount offered, the market reacted negatively to the speed at which the company returned for capital.
On the regulatory front, Congress passed a ban on a Federal Reserve central bank digital currency through 2030, sending the bill to President Trump’s desk after the Senate voted 85 to 5 and the House voted 358 to 32.
Melker pointed out that no Federal digital dollar ever existed, and argued the more meaningful element of the legislation is language protecting “open, permissionless and private dollar denominated assets,” which he views as a major win for incumbent stablecoins.
The Ethereum Foundation announced it has cut 20% of its staff and 40% of its budget, eliminating 54 jobs and shuttering the ZK Privacy Lab, while nine senior executives have departed since January.
On the other side of that story, ETH Labs is now being backed by Bitmine, Tom Lee, and Joseph Lubin, building what Melker described as a new Ethereum Foundation with a Wall Street stamp of approval.
CBOE, the 50-year-old options exchange that invented the VIX, announced it is launching its first prediction market products under the banner “CBOE Predicts,” offering contracts on whether the S&P 500 will close above or below a set level by end of day.
Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg has also directed his company to build a prediction markets app called Arena, which will trade on points rather than dollars to sidestep potential gambling classification concerns from the CFTC.
Kalshi, one of the original prediction market pioneers, is now moving into perpetual swaps on Bitcoin, continuing a broader trend of financial platforms expanding aggressively into each other’s territory.
Melker also flagged the Clarity Act news cycle as noise, explaining that a scheduled July 17th subcommittee hearing is in the House, where the bill already passed roughly a year ago, and has no bearing on the Senate, where it remains stalled.
