NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR), a producer of small modular reactors, went public through a SPAC merger in May 2022, opening at $10.70 per share before soaring to a record high of $53.43 last October.
The stock has since retreated sharply and now trades at around $11, leaving investors sharply divided over whether it represents a buying opportunity or a value trap.
At the heart of the bull case is NuScale’s proprietary SMR technology, which packages nuclear generation into vessels just 65 feet tall and 9 feet wide, each capable of producing up to 77 MWe of electricity.
Unlike conventional nuclear power plants, which typically generate more than 1,000 MWe, NuScale’s reactors are prefabricated and assembled on site, a design intended to reduce construction time, labor requirements, and overall costs.
Supporters argue that once NuScale begins deploying these reactors, revenue will skyrocket, economies of scale will compress expenses, and the company will begin narrowing its substantial losses.
The surging global demand for reliable power, driven by cloud computing, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and industrial automation, has intensified interest in nuclear energy as a clean and scalable solution.
The bear case, however, centers on the company’s timeline, with NuScale not expected to activate any reactors until the early 2030s, leaving a long stretch of speculative waiting for investors.
Between 2025 and 2028, analysts project NuScale’s revenue will climb from $31.5 million to $310.7 million, largely derived from front-end engineering and design studies, licensing agreements, and consulting work rather than actual power generation.
With a market capitalization of $3.4 billion, the stock already trades at roughly 11 times its projected 2028 sales, a rich valuation for a company that will remain unprofitable for the foreseeable future.
Adding further concern, Fluor, which owned more than half of NuScale’s shares prior to its market debut, recently liquidated its remaining holdings, and company insiders have continued to be net sellers of the stock.
NuScale represents a genuinely compelling long-term thesis paired with significant near-term risk, making position sizing and patience the two most critical factors for any investor considering exposure.
Those who believe NuScale will successfully commercialize its SMR technology in the 2030s and challenge conventional nuclear infrastructure may find the current price level a reasonable entry point for a small, speculative position.
However, the stock’s history of extreme volatility, its stretched valuation relative to near-term growth, and the continued insider selling all warrant caution before committing meaningful capital to the name.
