SpaceX’s anticipated public offering is shaping up to be the largest since Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL: 2222) listed in 2019, with a valuation that dwarfs the entire aerospace sector.
The company’s S-1 filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission put SpaceX’s valuation at $1.77 trillion, a figure that has drawn widespread attention across Wall Street and global markets.
According to a Barron’s report, that valuation exceeds the combined market capitalization of all 12 aerospace and defense companies currently listed on the S&P 500 index.
Those 12 companies, which include Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA), RTX Corp. (NYSE: RTX), GE Aerospace (NYSE: GE), and Northrop Grumman Corp., carry a combined valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion.
Despite the staggering valuation gap, those same 12 incumbents collectively generated approximately $500 billion in revenue, compared to SpaceX’s reported pre-IPO revenue of $18.7 billion.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., serving as lead underwriter for the offering, reportedly told prospective investors that SpaceX’s total revenue could surpass $474 billion by 2030.
Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management described the IPO as an exciting event for the tech industry, adding that SpaceX holds a competitive edge over Alphabet Inc. because Google does not make rockets.
Investor Ron Baron took an even more bullish stance, predicting that the Elon Musk-led company could eventually reach a valuation of $30 trillion, a prediction that prompted Musk himself to call Baron “smart.”
Not all market observers share that enthusiasm, with NYU Stern Professor Aswath Damodaran, widely known as the Dean of Valuation, stating he would avoid participating in the IPO due to concerns over its $28.5 trillion projected market opportunity and overall valuation.
Top pension officials from New York and California have also voiced criticism, accusing Musk of constructing a management-favorable corporate structure through a dual-class share arrangement.
Under that structure, Musk’s Class B shares are each worth 10 regular shares, granting him outsized voting power over the company’s direction following its public listing.
The offering is expected to be one of the most closely watched market events of the decade, drawing both fervent supporters and vocal skeptics in equal measure.
