With SpaceX set to go public on June 12 at a fixed IPO price of $135 per share, investors are asking whether it makes sense to exit AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) and rotate into the launch giant.
SpaceX’s IPO is targeting a valuation in the vicinity of $1.8 trillion, making it one of the most anticipated public market debuts in years.
For investors weighing the two names, valuation metrics offer a striking point of comparison that challenges conventional assumptions about which stock is the riskier bet.
At a $2 trillion market value, SpaceX would trade at roughly 104 times sales, a steep premium relative to the broader S&P 500 but arguably modest compared to its satellite peers.
AST SpaceMobile currently carries a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 409 times, making SpaceX look restrained by comparison despite its enormous headline valuation.
Rocket Lab sits between the two at around 123 times sales, illustrating just how elevated valuations across the commercial space sector have become in recent years.
AST SpaceMobile generated $70.9 million in revenue in 2025, a figure dwarfed by its own forward guidance of $150 million to $200 million for 2026.
The company reports that its existing backlog is sufficient to cover roughly half of its full-year revenue target, though meaningful cash burn remains a near-term reality for the business.
AST SpaceMobile posted a net loss of $191 million in the first quarter alone, underscoring the significant distance still separating the company from profitability.
The company’s technology centers on its Block 2 BlueBird satellites, which carry the largest commercial phased-array antennas ever deployed in low Earth orbit, measuring up to 2,400 square feet per unit.
Those satellites are designed to deliver direct-to-cellular broadband, including calls, texts, data, and live video streaming, directly to standard cellphones without requiring any specialized hardware.
A key risk factor hanging over AST SpaceMobile is its reliance on SpaceX itself to launch those satellites, a dependency that raises questions about cost efficiency and operational flexibility going forward.
Analysts have flagged that competitive disadvantage as a structural concern, particularly as SpaceX continues to expand its own Starlink direct-to-cell ambitions in the same market.
For investors, the central question is whether the known risks and cash burn at AST SpaceMobile outweigh the premium being asked for a piece of SpaceX at its market debut price.
