Wedbush has assigned more than 80% odds that Elon Musk will combine Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and SpaceX following SpaceX’s initial public offering.
In a note reposted by Wedbush’s Global Head of Tech Research Dan Ives, the firm expects a high likelihood that Tesla and SpaceX could merge by 2027.
Wedbush highlighted several developments it believes are bringing the two companies into closer alignment, including Tesla’s $2 billion investment in xAI, SpaceX’s subsequent acquisition of xAI, and the launch of a joint Terafab manufacturing facility.
The firm contends that Musk is methodically building a unified AI-driven ecosystem spanning computing power, advanced manufacturing, autonomous technologies, energy solutions and space infrastructure.
Wedbush argues that growing overlap in assets, operations and strategic priorities across Tesla, SpaceX and xAI points to the companies eventually functioning as interconnected pillars of a broader technology platform.
Ives stated in a post on X that the SpaceX IPO could mark a pivotal moment for investors looking to capitalize on the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
He argued the IPO represents more than just another Musk-led milestone, signaling the emergence of a new investment era centered on the commercialization of space.
The Future Fund LLC’s Managing Partner Gary Black offered a sharply divergent view, saying he does not understand the logic behind a potential SpaceX-Tesla merger.
Black argued that merger advocates largely ignore the dilution math, warning that a highly-valued company like SpaceX merging with a lower-valued company like Tesla could wipe out nearly 30% of the combined entity’s enterprise value.
“Why would a $SPCX investor other than maybe Elon who might presumably prefer to be CEO of 1 rather than 2 megacap companies go for that? Investors like pure plays. Conglomerates almost always trade at a discount,” Black said.
On the sales front, Tesla’s car sales in the European market soared 67% year-on-year in April, extending the company’s winning streak in the region to three consecutive months.
According to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, Tesla sold 9,169 cars in the European Union in April, up from 5,483 units in the same period a year earlier.
Across the EU, European Free Trade Association and the U.K. combined, Tesla sold 10,654 cars in April, up 47% year-on-year from 7,272 units in the same month a year prior.
Tesla’s market share in the battery electric vehicle segment for April 2026 edged up to 0.9%, from 0.6% during the year-ago period.
Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around Tesla trended in bearish territory, while TSLA stock is down 6% year-to-date but up 24% over the past 12 months.
