Space stocks slipped overnight as investors braced for pricing details on SpaceX’s anticipated IPO, with analysts already raising red flags about its proposed valuation.
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) fell over 1%, while Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) and Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) each shed approximately 0.5%, Redwire (NYSE: RDW) eased 0.4%, and Rocket One fell 7%.
SpaceX could unveil key details of its long-awaited IPO as early as Wednesday, according to Bloomberg, potentially giving investors their first detailed look at the offering before marketing begins.
Reuters reported that SpaceX plans to raise $75 billion by selling 555.6 million shares at $135 per share, implying a valuation of $1.75 trillion to $1.8 trillion.
That figure comfortably surpasses Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion IPO in 2019, marking what would be a record-breaking public market debut.
A roadshow could begin shortly after an updated filing, with pricing reportedly targeted for June 11, and the deal is expected to be structured as an all-primary offering.
Under that structure, all 555.6 million shares would be newly issued by the company, with all proceeds flowing directly to SpaceX and existing shareholders barred from selling during the IPO.
SpaceX is also reportedly negotiating underwriting fees of less than 0.75%, well below traditional IPO levels, though the deal’s massive size could still generate $500 million in fees for participating banks.
Over 1,000 current and former SpaceX employees have joined forces to negotiate lower advisory fees and gain access to sophisticated wealth-management products ahead of the listing, with the group now estimated to oversee up to $20 billion in wealth.
The sector initially rallied after SpaceX said it had identified the “largest actionable total addressable market in human history,” estimating a $28.5 trillion opportunity spanning space services, Starlink connectivity, and AI.
Sentiment has since cooled as investors weigh the proposed $1.75 trillion to $1.8 trillion valuation and concerns that the IPO may already be pricing in much of that future growth.
Morningstar assigned SpaceX a fair value estimate of $780 billion, roughly half the reported IPO valuation, stating: “We think it’s very likely we will see the shares as overvalued.”
The research firm added that a valuation above $1.5 trillion would likely lead it to view the stock as overvalued under almost any near-term scenario.
Morningstar warned that “Max Q,” the point of greatest pressure during a rocket launch, “will come for SpaceX’s stock in the months following the IPO,” referring to when employee and early investor shares become eligible for sale.
However, Morningstar acknowledged that limited float, strong investor appetite for AI infrastructure, broad Wall Street support, and a potential fast track into the Nasdaq 100 could allow shares to initially outperform despite valuation concerns, adding that SpaceX stock could “survive separation and even ascent toward orbit” after listing.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward SpaceX remained “bullish” amid “extremely high” message volume, with ASTS and LUNR also drawing “bullish” sentiment and RDW attracting “extremely bullish” sentiment amid “high” message volume.
RKLB’s sentiment stood at “neutral” with “normal” message volume, reflecting a more cautious retail outlook for the rocket manufacturer.
Over the past year, ASTS has surged 389%, followed by RKLB at 364%, LUNR at 259%, and RDW at 28%.
