Situational Awareness LP has added Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) to its 13F portfolio for the first quarter of 2026, declaring a new stake consisting of PUT bets worth close to 7 million shares.
The fund, led by Leopold Aschenbrenner, has taken a bearish stance on the enterprise technology giant, which ranks third on a list of stocks the firm is shorting.
Oracle offers products and services that address enterprise information technology environments worldwide, with cloud services accounting for the largest share of the company’s revenue mix.
In recent months, Oracle has begun building data centers within AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud, expanding its infrastructure footprint across major cloud platforms.
The company is also partnering with OpenAI on a $300 billion Stargate AI project, a development that has drawn significant attention from both bullish and bearish investors.
Oracle’s contract backlog has reached close to half a trillion dollars, a figure that sits at the heart of the debate between bulls and bears on the stock.
Bearish money managers argue that the market has prematurely priced in the $553 billion backlog as immediate earnings, while the underlying execution risks remain substantial.
Supply-chain delays for cooling turbines and power-grid connectivity bottlenecks could push actual revenue recognition well beyond what current market valuations appear to assume.
Converting the massive contract backlog into recognized revenue would require building physical data centers, such as the proposed Stargate AI cluster, that do not yet exist.
Beyond Aschenbrenner, other prominent fund managers holding bearish positions on Oracle include Ken Griffin, Israel Englander, D.E. Shaw, Chris Rokos, and Sander Gerber, among others.
The breadth of institutional bearish positioning reflects widespread concern that intense execution risk could delay the translation of Oracle’s headline backlog figures into actual reported revenue.
